Only one can become it: Armin Laschet and Markus Söder apply for the candidacy for chancellor for the Union. The situation seems to be in a mess. There are now three scenarios.
Munich – It’s a power struggle on the go and on the break. CDU boss Armin Laschet * and CSU boss Markus Söder are wrestling these days about which of the two should be candidate for the Union as chancellor candidate in the federal election in the autumn. One – Laschet – knows the CDU grandees are on his side, the other – Söder – has the clearly better poll numbers. Nobody wants to give in so far. And so the Union is threatened with an ultimate test from which there is hardly any escape. We explain which ways out of the K-trap could lead.
Union candidate for chancellor: For Laschet, the political future is at stake
Scenario 1 – Laschet withdraws: For Armin Laschet, his entire political career is at stake. If he leaves the field to Söder, he goes out humiliated and weakened. As CDU * party leader who could not prevail against the little sister CSU *, he could no longer be held just a few months after his election.
His office as Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia would also be in danger. The state parliament will be re-elected there next spring. And after a defeat in the fight for the candidacy for chancellor, Laschet would also be an extremely weak candidate in his country.
Söder in the general population with better values than Laschet in Union voters
For this reason alone, it is unlikely that Laschet will leave the candidacy to Söder of his own free will. It is true that after many critical statements that were made about him in the joint parliamentary group on Tuesday, he is badly hit. Then there are his bad poll ratings. According to the ZDF Politbarometer, only 29 percent of those surveyed trust Laschet to be chancellor. Even among Union supporters, it is only 43 percent.
Söder, on the other hand, consider 63 percent of all respondents to be fit for chancellor * – and 84 percent of CDU / CSU supporters. There are worlds in between. But Laschet is known for its standing qualities. For the Aachener to buckle, the party leadership would have to withdraw its support. But it doesn’t look like that yet.
Chancellor candidate of the Union: Söder does not have to worry about his offices
Scenario 2 – Söder withdraws: It was only last Sunday that CSU boss Markus Söder officially declared that he wanted to compete – even if it was an open secret. If he now withdraws in favor of Laschet, it would be a clear defeat for Söder. As much as for Laschet is not at stake for him. His post as CSU head and the office of prime minister would not be in danger for him. But to come out stronger despite a waiver, Söder has gone too far.
By not giving in after the vote of the CDU presidium for Laschet on Monday, Söder allowed the CDU leader to be shot in a joint parliamentary group meeting of critical members of the Union. A weak election result in the autumn with a candidate Laschet would therefore also be blamed on Söder. In addition, withdrawing is basically not Söder’s thing. If the CSU boss goes into battle, he wants to leave the field as a winner.
Even with concessions such as ministerial offices for the CSU, it is unlikely to be available for purchase in view of the uncertain election result. What would such promises be worth if a large part of the ministries went to the Greens? Conclusion: Söder doesn’t have as much to lose as Laschet, but from his point of view still too much.
In the only fight vote in the parliamentary group so far, the CSU candidate prevailed
Scenario 3 – battle vote in the faction: This has happened before: in 1979, Franz Josef Strauss (CSU) won a vote in the joint parliamentary group against Ernst Albrecht (CDU) as a candidate – and in the end did not become chancellor. That it could come back like this shows how messy the situation is. Because it would undoubtedly be the most brutal method possible to determine a candidate. Such a fight vote would be possible at the parliamentary group meeting next Tuesday.
Signatures are already being collected in several parliamentary offices, it was said on Friday from parliamentary groups. Accordingly, a vote should be held on Tuesday if the dispute does not end beforehand. For the Union this would mean that it will only determine its candidate for chancellor after the Greens, who want to announce their decision on Monday, and will likely give a much more harmonious picture.
Söder is said to have clearly won the mood test in the parliamentary group last Tuesday – two thirds of the speakers are said to have spoken out in favor of him, report participants. But not all MPs have spoken. Laschet dares to pull the parliamentary group on his side, it is said. (S. Horsch) * merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA
List of rubric lists: © Michael Kappeler / dpa
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