This Tuesday more than 330 million inhabitants of the 50 states that make up United States They will decide who will occupy the Oval Office for the next four years. The electoral race comes to an end after a historic campaign in which there has been everything from a change of candidate to the attempted assassination of another. The objective of both the Democrat Kamala Harris as from the republican donald trump is to achieves 270 electoral votes needed; in a system, the American one, which is proportional and where the winner takes all the votes distributed by the state. In addition, to give more excitement to an already evenly matched night, from the entire territory of the United States There are 7 states that will have the key to these elections and on which the candidates have focused a good part of their campaign, aware that without achieving the majority of them their aspirations for the White House They will vanish.
The swing states or hinge states are called that because they do not have a clear voting tendency. These key states can change in each election, since there are some that have been Democratic or Republican in the past but that in recent elections have been changing and join those that can swing for one candidate or another. In these elections there will be seven: Pennsylvania (distributes 19 votes), Georgia (16 votes), North Carolinae (16 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Arizona (11 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes)y Snowfall (6 votes).
At this time the polls point to a technical tie, so any pool of votes that at another time would have been irrelevant in electoral terms may be essential. As well as Any issue can influence whether a community decides to vote or not. to a candidate. From attracting the Arabs of Michigan to mobilizing African Americans in Georgia or Latinos in Arizona, Nevada or Pennsylvania. “For the Democratic Party, its most logical path to victory is to take over the ‘blue wall’ that is Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. If they don’t get those states, I don’t think they can win.“, he assures 20 minutes Jason Xidias, professor of International Relations at the Universidad Pontificia Comillas, who adds that the Republicans must keep North Carolina and try to take away others like Pennsylvania, the cornerstone of these elections.
Pennsylvania, ‘the keystone State’
That in recent weeks both Harris and Trump have set foot in this state on several occasions is no coincidence. The Republican candidate has known since his first campaign in 2016 that This state is the key to the White House. And Democrats have learned from the mistakes of the past, when they assumed that the population of big cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh was enough to guarantee them victory in the so-called ‘Keystone State’. ).
10% of the population of this state is black and Latinos are also close to that percentage. Vice President Harris has turned precisely in one of her last rallies in Philadelphia to the Church of Christian Compassion, with an African-American majority, from where she asked for the vote to “decide the future of the nation.” Additionally, he was at the Philly Cuts barbershop, where he heard from several young African-Americans about the direction the country should take. Harris is aware that It is difficult for him to reach the men of this communitywhich is why he is also relying on the Obamas to campaign in a historically Democratic sector of the population, but to whom Trump is increasingly closing distance. Especially considering that Joe Biden won only 90,000 votes in this state four years ago.
For José Antonio Gurpegui, director of the Franklin-UAH Institute, Pennsylvania is the most typical state of all, with a white man voter, who votes republican and women who vote democratwhich also includes ethnic minorities where the difference between both parties has been reducing. “These minorities are going to continue voting predominantly Democratic, but the difference has been reduced by 19 points from the 40-odd percent support they had in Obama’s first or second election,” he says.
“If a candidate manages to win Pennsylvania and Georgia, I am convinced that he will win the elections, because one of the others will surely fall,” explains Gurpegui, who like Xidias assures that with 19 electoral votes that he distributes “he cannot conceive of anyone reaching the 270 needed to win the elections without winning Pennsylvania.” Although in recent months the polls pointed to a small difference in favor of Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania, in recent months that dynamic has changed in favor of Trump, who one day before the elections it is slightly above.
North Carolina, Trump’s fiefdom
Pennsylvania is essential to win the elections, but that state alone is not enough. This pivotal state must be accompanied by others and this is where Democrats and Republicans try to take over those that have historically benefited them the most. In the Republican case the bet is clear: North Carolina. In fifty years the Democrats have only won this state in 1976 with Jimmy Carter and in 2008 with Barack Obama, although the number of votes by which the Republicans have finally won is very small, which has led to it being considered one more of the swing states.
In this state, the Democrats need a high participation of 23% of the African-American population to have options. In addition, North Carolina also has a significant pool of voters with higher education, who polls show could lean more toward Democrats than Republicans in these elections. Despite this, Jason Xidias acknowledges that he sees “very difficult for Kamala Harris to win North Carolina” despite the fact that “demographic changes place it increasingly as a state to be contested.”
North Carolina distributes 16 delegates and Trump is currently ahead in the polls by approximately 1 point. The tycoon knows that in this state (which he won in 2020 by less than 75,000 votes) your chances of winning are set and after the speeches on Friday in Michigan and Wisconsin, he left on Saturday for Gastonia and Greensboro, North Carolina, where he participated in the penultimate rallies before ending the campaign.
Harris also participated on Saturday in rallies in Georgia and the city of Charlotte, North Carolina. And, as Gurpegui recalls, in this state The governor is also elected in these electionsanother important aspect in those elections for control of the legislative chambers and in which “it was very significant that while Trump leads Kamala in the presidential race, it seems that a Democratic governor is going to be voted for.”
From the ‘blue wall’ to the weight of minorities
Within the rest of the key states there are some whose demographic particularities have meant that both candidates have had to make the maximum effort to not lose a single ballot. Along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, another of the states that make up that ‘blue wall’ is Michigan, which after Pennsylvania has been the swing states in this electoral campaign with more rallies by Harris and Trump. Michigan is the state with the highest proportion of Arab Americans in the entire countrypractically doubling the second. Here, issues such as the Israeli offensive in Gaza and the US support for Netanyahu have had broad importance.
“The issue of Gaza could be decisive in the presidential race,” says Gurpegui, who adds that in elections as tight as these, small communities could hold the key. Although they have historically been Democrats, some accuse the Biden administration (of which Harris is a part as vice president) of not having been tough enough on Netanyahu. “This does not mean that everyone will now vote for the Republican Party, but they can stay home; Even though Kamala Harris takes refuge in Biden’s decisions, she has not wanted to get involved,” says Gurpegui. Something similar with this issue occurs with university students who, in the early stages of the conflict in the Middle East, carried out historic camps against Biden’s decisions. his Government.
On the other hand, another of the Republican fiefdoms that Biden managed to snatch by surprise and that will be important in these elections in Georgia. After Washington DC and Mississippi, Georgia is the place with the highest percentage of African Americans in the entire US. Despite this, not even Obama’s historic elections could take this state from the Republicans, since the experts consulted agree that the African-American community in this state does not usually have a strong electoral participation. “Apart from the issue of being a woman (which is influencing African-American males) another important reason why many African-Americans do not support Kamala is because They feel disillusioned with the economic policies of the Democratic Party and they think Trump could handle it better,” says Jason Xidias.
However, the professor from Comillas points out that unlike other places, it is a state that the Democrats could take away, since “Atlanta is a pretty progressive city” that if they manage to combine it with a high African-American participation they could change the current trend of the polls that show Trump as the winner.
In addition to African Americans, another important group that will matter in key states are Latinos. The Latino vote historically has a lot of weight in southern states like Florida and Texas, although there are two swing states which will also have it: Snowfall and Arizona. In the last week of the campaign, Harris has visited these two places and has relied on artists such as the Mexican group Los Tigres del Norte, Maná, or the singer of Puerto Rican origin Jennifer López to attract this large community that has increasingly less defined its vote.
“In the case of Hispanics, what is happening is that they increasingly consider themselves less Hispanic and more working class. Especially when we are talking about second and third generations, to whom the issue of immigration is as if it did not concern them. “, explains Gurpegui. “They are already Americans and what worries them is being able to purchase a house or inflation. The fundamental point for this group is the economy“he says.
An example of them is Arizona, a road with more than 30% Latino population and which It has been a fiefdom of the Republican Party. In fact, since 1948, Democrats have only won here with Bill Clinton in 1996 and with Biden in 2020. At the other extreme is Nevada, the fifth with the highest proportion of Latinos, which In the last 4 elections he has voted Democratalthough in recent elections the Republicans have been reducing their difference. With just a few hours left before the votes take place, Arizona seems clear that it will be Republican, with almost four points of difference with respect to the Democrats. As for Nevada (as has happened with Pennsylvania), Trump has placed himself slightly above Harris in recent days despite the fact that she had been winning by a narrow margin for weeks.
On November 5, everyone will look at these states as if trying to figure out what will happen the day after. They have the keys to what will happen. Seven states worth a seat in the White House.
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