Despite the advance in the estimate for inflation, financial market economists maintained the projection of 11.75% for the Selic rate at the end of 2022 in the Market Focus Report. A month ago, it was 11.50%. Considering only the 80 responses in the last five working days, the expectation for the Selic at the end of this year also remained at 11.75%.
After raising the Selic by 1.50 percentage points, from 7.75% to 9.25% per year, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) indicated, in the December communiqué, another increase of the same magnitude in February, which would take the rate to 10.75%.
The collegiate also guaranteed that it will persevere with the monetary tightening strategy “until not only the disinflation process is consolidated, but also the anchoring of expectations around its targets”, concerned with the increase in inflation projections and the risk of detachment from the longer term inflation.
In the Focus Bulletin released this Monday, the scenario for the basic interest rate of the economy was maintained for the following years. The Focus estimate for the Selic rate at the end of 2023 remained at 8.00%, compared to the same rate four weeks ago. For 2024, it was 7.00%, the same percentage as a month ago. Likewise, the forecast for the end of 2025 remained at 7.00%, repeating the rate of four weeks ago.
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