No other problem is more urgent for Mexicans than security. During the first five years of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo) mandate, there were 171,085 homicides, surpassing any previous administration. Every day, 46 people are murdered or missing. All of these figures underscore the critical challenge facing new President Claudia Sheinbaum.
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A survey last month by the national statistics agency showed that 60.7 percent of the adult population considers security to be the country’s most serious problem. This situation limits Mexico’s sovereignty, compromises its democratic institutions and puts a question mark over its economic future, deterring foreign direct investment and preventing the country from realizing its economic potential. nearshoring.
Every Mexican government since Felipe Calderón has defaulted to a militarized strategy against cartels, regardless of left or right ideology. Even Amlo, who came to power with the motto ‘Hugs, not bullets’, quickly militarized security policy. It greatly expanded the role of the military in political life, who now oversee infrastructure projects, tourism development and customs operations. And last month, the ruling Morena party further militarized public security by placing the civilian National Guard under military control.
The start of the new presidential term offers the opportunity to consider and test another option, a strategy based on enhanced intelligence, mediation and deterrence. that takes advantage of close collaboration with US security forces to make targeted interventions before cartel battles get out of control.
Sheinbaum’s record as mayor of Mexico City suggests she might consider that strategy. Taking that path can benefit the nascent government and the next US administration, regardless of who wins the November 5 elections. The most important issues for the United States and its elections – the economy, crime, immigration and the drug epidemic – are closely linked to Mexico.
During her tenure as mayor, Sheinbaum halved homicides in the capital city, largely by turning to civilian police, bolstering police investigative capacity.encouraging cooperation with prosecutors and sharing intelligence information with US law enforcement agencies.
There are signs that she could continue these policies as president. He appointed as Secretary of Security his former head of Mexico City Security, Omar García Harfuch, and has promised to create a new national intelligence agency and binational working groups on security issuesindicating a possible shift towards more sophisticated policing strategies and an emphasis on targeted operations.
Still, some speculate that his security posture will follow Amlo’s militarized strategy. Sheinbaum has pledged to maintain the military’s prominent role in public security, indicating that he could fall into the same trap as Amlo: reform-minded public rhetoric but punitive policies in practice.
Furthermore, radical reforms of the judicial system, which currently only resolves 1 percent of crimes, are required to deter criminal violence. The 2024 judicial reform, while ostensibly aimed at addressing systemic problems, has been criticized for allowing the Executive to concentrate more power instead of addressing the fundamental problems of impunity and inefficiency that plague the justice system.
SARAH ZUKERMAN DALY
AMERICAS QUARTERLY
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