NATO ministers will meet in Brussels on Thursday, and the wider cream of foreign and security policy will go to Munich from Friday. Citizens in Europe are trying to wake up to the fact that even war cannot be completely ruled out, writes Elina Kervinen, HS's political editor.
NATO ministers and the wider cream of security policy are grabbing the world's crises by the horns this week.
The second anniversary of the Russian war of aggression is approaching, there is still uncertainty about the continuation of US support for Ukraine. The war between Israel and Hamas also continues, and efforts are being made to establish a ceasefire in Cairo.
It's the super week of security policy.
Defense ministers of the NATO countries will first meet in Brussels on Thursday. Right after this, from Friday to Sunday, the cream of foreign and security policy will gather in Munich at the annual security conference. the future president of Finland by Alexander Stubb is scheduled to participate in this meeting, still in the capacity of a professor.
What can you expect in the coming days?
NATO is trying to curb the uncertainty created by Trump
At Thursday's meeting of NATO defense ministers, the implementation of the new defense plans approved at the Vilnius Summit is to be discussed, among other things. The plans deal with troops and defense investments, including increasing ammunition production.
In the corridor discussions of the meeting and in front of the media, the central role will probably still be given to the person who is again aspiring to be the president of the United States Donald Trump's speeches.
Trump questioned again on the weekend NATO's fifth article hinting that the United States would not necessarily support allies under attack who do not invest in their defense the NATO goal of two percent in relation to the gross domestic product.
Trump's statements naturally make the union nervous.
Not least because Trump also encouraged Russia, as it were, to attack countries that do not pay the agreed share.
You can guess whether Trump would act as president more moderately than it seems during the campaign. However, it's not just about that.
The problem is that the very talk that NATO's biggest military power would not necessarily be committed to defending its allies erodes the Article Five deterrence at the core of NATO.
“We should leave no room for misjudgments or misunderstandings in Moscow about our readiness and our commitment, our determination to protect our allies,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday at a pre-meeting news conference.
NATO even before the meeting, sought to dominate further discussion about Trump.
Stoltenberg announced that 18 out of 31 NATO countries are reaching the goal of two percent of the military alliance's defense spending this year.
That is seven more countries than in the previous published statistics.
Among other things, Germany, which Trump particularly criticized during his presidency, is now precisely reaching the NATO border. For example Frankfurter Allgemeine reported on Wednesday news agency Dpa's data, according to which Germany's defense spending would be 2.01 percent in relation to the gross national product. The border was crossed for the last time in 1992.
In the process about a third of the NATO countries would still not reach the goal in light of the information provided by Stoltenberg.
In Brussels, the burden sharing and more generally about how Europe itself takes responsibility for its defense has also been discussed.
The discussions are taking place at a time when citizens in several countries are being awakened to understand that even war cannot be ruled out in the coming years.
For example, the German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius recently urged to be prepared to the possibility that Russia could attack a NATO country in less than a decade. Similar statements have also been heard elsewhere.
Few people in Europe disagree with Trump's basic claim, that is, that Europe needs to invest more in its defense. Now the investments of the NATO countries come at an important time as the NATO summit in Washington is approaching.
The meeting celebrating NATO's 75th anniversary will be held in July at a sensitive moment just before the Republican party convention.
Stubb steps into the limelight in Munich
NATO meeting after the annual security conference in Munich starts on Friday.
At least supporting Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East are probably strong themes. The exact program of the conference was not yet known on Wednesday.
In the traditional published under the conference in the report the state of the world is described by the gloomy term “lose-lose”. That is, as a situation where the threat is everyone's loss.
The report's message is that, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertain economic times, many governments are no longer focused on the benefits of global cooperation, but are increasingly concerned that they will benefit less than others.
This can lead to a losing cycle that endangers cooperation and t
he international system, which, despite its flaws, can still help “grow the cake” to the benefit of all.
Finns however, attention at the conference will primarily focus on Stubb, who has just been elected president.
He has been invited to the conference as a professor. In his press conference on Monday, Stubb wanted to underline that he will not appear as president, because he does not yet have one.
In any case, it will be his first visible international appearance since his selection. In Finland, we are monitoring what kind of attention Stubb gets and what message he conveys about Finland's role in key security issues.
Exact information about Stubb's program was not known at the time of writing. The foreign minister from Finland will also participate in the meeting Elina Valtonen (kok) and the Minister of Defense Antti Häkkänen (cook).
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