British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is swinging in office. Head of the UK government since June 2019, first succeeding Theresa May within the Conservative party and then elected in December 2019, Johnson performed well in the face of the pandemic in public opinion. The last few months, however, have taken a toll on his image, especially through a series of gestures seen as hypocritical by the electorate, contradicting the responsibilities of a leader.
A well-known journalist to the public, Johnson was mayor of London from 2008 to 2016. In the middle of that year he became Foreign Secretary in the Theresa May government. Mainly, he was one of the main names and faces of the Brexit campaign, perhaps the biggest. established politician who defended this position. At least publicly, of course. May, for example, while in charge of running Brexit, was not a brexiteer and, more than once, in the Cameron administration, it was recorded criticizing the idea.
It was this banner that designed him to succeed May in the Conservative internal election and, later, to win the general election. That of being a supporter of Brexit who would put it into practice, even if a break without negotiations was necessary, as he threatened at the time. All these issues have already been addressed in previous columns in our space, from the conservative succession to Brexit-related issues, such as the internal border of the island of Ireland and the issue of Gibraltar.
Pandemic
Britain’s exit from the European Union would already be a difficult challenge under normal conditions. Along with that came the Covid-19 pandemic. January 31, 2020 is symbolic. It is both the day the UK officially ceased being a member of the EU and the day the first case of Covid-19 was confirmed on British soil. The first death came on March 7th and, on the 23rd of that month, the first Stay at Home Order, “Order to Stay at Home” in a free translation.
Non-essential travel was suspended, people were told to keep their distance and avoid contact, schools, bars and businesses were closed. Two activities can well exemplify the relationship between Brexit and the pandemic. The first is that of health professionals, as many who worked in the United Kingdom and were citizens of European countries were left in a situation of bureaucratic uncertainty. What could be a minor setback in normal times has become a much bigger problem during a pandemic.
The second example is that of customs, as post-Brexit uncertainties have left the situation of supplying health supplies and the functioning of supply chains even more chaotic. The first two waves of the pandemic hit the UK hard. The country is thirtieth in the world in deaths per million. For comparison, Brazil is 14th, the US is 19th and Ireland is 75th. The UK is also one of the most testing countries in the world.
More than 400 million tests were carried out, the third in the world in absolute numbers and one of the ten most in proportional numbers. This is more than six times the number of tests carried out in Brazil. The testing policy, along with other public policies and an intense vaccination campaign, with the domestic production of immunizations, meant that the British government managed to enter the year 2021 with the pandemic relatively under control.
Public opinion
And who says that is not the column, it is the British public opinion. Johnson’s approval rating in April 2020 was in the 60% range, before plummeting to 34% by the end of the year. While the Conservatives took 43.6% of the vote in December 2019, polls taken in May and June 2021 gave up to 47% of voting intentions for the party, with government approval at 50%. Today, both numbers have plummeted and Boris Johnson faces a serious image crisis.
The disapproval of the government is approaching 70% and the latest election polls put 40% of the voting intentions for the Labor opposition that, today, would be the winner in the general elections. On 16 December 2021 the North Shropshire district held elections to replace MP Owen Paterson, who resigned. Elected was Helen Morgan of the Liberal Democrats, the first time in history that the Conservatives were defeated in the district.
Readers may remember when, in the column about Argentina’s November 2021 congressional elections, we commented that Alberto Fernández’s popularity was at a low ebb. On the occasion, photos were published of the birthday party of the first lady, Fabiola Yáñez, on July 14, 2020 at the presidential residence of Olivos, with several guests who were not wearing a protective mask. We said here in our space that “the damage of explicit hypocrisy was done”.
After all, while the population had to deal with various health restriction measures, the president himself, who should have set an example, violated them. Agglomeration, party, guests without a mask smiling in the photos. It got pretty bad, to be nice. Boris Johnson goes through the same thing now. Two parties went public, both at the official Downing Street residence, with between twenty and forty people involved, music, cheeses and wines.
One was in May and the other in the weeks before Christmas. Both moments of health restrictions in the country. In December, a press officer had already resigned, after a video in which she “joked” about a supposedly fictitious party. The prime minister, at the time, apologized for the aide and stated that “I have been assured repeatedly, since these allegations emerged, that there was no party and that no rules were broken”.
His version changed to a confession that there was a party, but he was not present. Then, that he was there, but didn’t celebrate. Before the parliament, he said that he sincerely apologized and that he only greeted his employees. “I walked into that garden just after six on May 20, 2020 to thank groups of employees before returning to my office 25 minutes later to continue working (…) On second thought, I should have sent everyone back. inside”.
Renounce?
This ends up being a blow to the image of a government that is already affected by other problems, such as an increase in cases of the new variant omicron and problems still linked to Brexit, such as maritime disputes with France. In the premier’s own words, while the population made sacrifices for 18 months and could not even say goodbye properly to their loved ones, the rule makers were breaking them. Part of parliament booed him and the opposition asked for his resignation.
And not just the Labor opposition. Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, called for Johnson’s resignation, saying the parties had hurt public confidence in the government and that “the Queen sitting alone mourning her husband is the definitive image of the lockdown”. Mainly, some conservative names, like Andrew Bridge, already speak of a vote of no confidence. It takes 54 Conservative MPs or a majority of parliament to start the process.
And here two important questions arise. One is that the situation could get worse, with other alleged parties revealed, or possible details of the parties already known, such as having gone beyond midnight or invitations that said to bring your own alcoholic beverage. There is even speculation that a farewell party for an official photographer would have taken place during the official mourning for the death of Prince Consort Phillip. If so, Boris Johnson knows. And he knows he won’t be able to maintain his appearance for long.
Second, the Conservatives certainly want to prevent an articulation that causes the dissolution of parliament and a new general election. The current parliament has a mandate until May 2024. From this it can be concluded that the Conservative party will seek a solution within its framework. Boris Johnson would be “invited” to an honorable resignation, paving the way for an internal party election. The country would then have a new, or new, prime minister, who would have two years to renew confidence in the government.
It is very similar to what happened in Sweden, where Stefan Lofven resigned in September to make way for a new government that would have a year to prepare for elections. If Johnson does not resign, there is the path of a vote of no confidence within the party. Finally, of course, it is possible that Johnson will be able to overcome the crisis, which sounds very unlikely today, even more so with possible new revelations. Probably a waiver will come around.
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