With good will, pro-Europeans could see symbolism there: the German coalition agreement mentions the term ‘Europe’ no fewer than 254 times, compared to ‘only’ 144 times ‘Germany’. And when you read the call for the ‘further development of a European federal state’, the amendment of the European treaties and the strengthening of ‘European strategic sovereignty’, you would almost think that in a Europe speech by French President Emmanuel Macron have ended up.
A new German coalition is making its impact felt across Europe – especially when a chancellor leaves after 16 years. And also in The Hague, which likes to hide behind the broad back of Berlin in many cases. The German influence on Brussels files is great and, as an economic giant, Berlin’s choices have an impact on everything.
In tone, the new coalition is without a doubt an effusively pro-European one. What that means in practice remains to be seen: many ambitions and goals are vague, the precise wording clearly a difficult compromise between three parties. But there are indeed indications of shifts between the lines, which set both Brussels and The Hague in motion. The contours of the post-Merkel era are also becoming visible for Europe.
First, there are the priorities that the new coalition places on strengthening climate policy and digitization. Both Chancellor Angela Merkel has been neglected by critics for too long and are crucial for transforming the European economy. The fact that Germany is adjusting its green ambitions upwards will have a major impact on the negotiation of the precise measures of the Green Deal in the near future. For example, the new coalition embraces a rapid switch to electric cars much more strongly, just like the ‘CO2-border charge’.
Hand of the cut
Those ambitions may cost a bit. And although Germany’s infamous ‘brake on debt’ will return after the pandemic in 2023, until then the coalition leaves the opportunity to borrow many additional billions to fill a special climate fund. It opens the door to higher public investment, also in the years to come. The fact that the hand (cautiously) is making the cut in the traditionally über-economical Germany will also strongly influence the discussion about higher government spending on the climate transition in Brussels and The Hague.
Not that Germany suddenly throws all brakes loose. The intended new liberal finance minister Christian Lindner is known as a budget conservative, who is already causing nightmares in southern Europe. The agreement emphasizes once again the importance of European fiscal rules. But at the same time, the parties leave a gap for the ‘further development’ of those standards and there are no red lines.
What that means in concrete terms remains to be seen, but the fact that Berlin offers openings will also put pressure on the traditionally strict position of the Netherlands. Even Lindner admitted to ZDF on Wednesday that Germany “has a responsibility to ensure that (…) other countries also invest and there is political stability.” And while the German coalition emphasizes that the European debt-filled corona recovery fund is “one-off and temporary”, the possibility of issuing new ‘eurobonds’ is nowhere excluded.
The post-Merkel reality is perhaps best seen in language about threats inside and outside the EU. Europe must become more independent and pursue a more common defense and foreign policy under the leadership of a new, ‘real’ EU foreign minister. Merkel’s cherished EU investment agreement with China is being frozen, partly because of human rights violations. Intended Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) was previously regularly very critical of China and Russia.
Press Von der Leyen
The tone is even sharper when it comes to European handling of violations of the rule of law within their own union. While Merkel has always focused on compromises and de-escalation, the new coalition argues that Brussels must act much more firmly in defending European values and treaties. In addition, Germany will not agree to release money from the corona recovery fund if “requirements such as an independent judiciary” are not guaranteed. It therefore seems unlikely that Poland and Hungary can quickly lay claim to ‘their’ recovery billions.
With that, the end of Merkel’s era is also putting pressure on her protégé in Brussels: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The lines between Berlin and Brussels have been short in recent years and mutual support has been solid – for example in the rule of law debate. How warm relations will become with a more critical German coalition remains to be seen.
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