Newton’s third law indicates that every action corresponds to a reaction. Politics is not alien to that, less in the Province of Buenos Aires. And much less in the opposition. It is that the decision of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta to move Diego Santilli to be the first candidate for deputy in the Province triggered discomfort in the radicalism, which launched the neuroscientist Facundo Manes. Action and reaction.
That made Elisa Carrió decline her candidacy and banish the heterity possibility of a unit list in the district called to be “Mother of all battles”. Now, in the Province, there are now several municipalities in crisis due to the internal ones and in at least the 33 that the UCR has all PRO officials were asked to resign available to the mayor.
One week after the closing of lists, there are two certainties. The first: “Unity is impossible”. The phrase says to Clarion an experienced leader of the Buenos Aires UCR. The second: nobody can forecast how the final lists will be formed after the STEP of September 12.
And this is so because not even the leaders of the PRO, the UCR, the CC-ARI and the rest of the 16 parties that make up the Frente “Juntos” ─ the new name of the alliance in PBA─ can determine for sure which candidates are number placed on the general ballot.
What’s more, there is a detailed instructional called “Floor and system of distribution of positions of the Alianza Juntos”, that many seasoned political shipowners still do not finish understanding in detail.
The document, to which he had access ClarionIt is a complex sketch of places to be filled that changes according to the percentages reached, the gender of the head of the list changes if they compete male vs. male or female vs. woman, with man vs. woman) and the possibility that a third list will present and reach the floor of 20% of the valid votes obtained by the alliance, which would trigger the distribution by the D’Hondt system.
To the complex network of mathematical calculations, which is replicated ad infinitum In the formation of lists of provincial deputies and senators, as well as councilors and school counselors, one more seasoning is added: the own risks of each electoral campaign. “Everyone knows how the STEP begins, but not how they end”, mark in Together.
Request for unity and resignations
In the last hours, from the PRO the possibility of a unit list began to slide. “In political terms, I always seek dialogue, consensus and unity, there is a very good piece of information when the alliances were closed, Together for Change was presented as an alliance in 23 of the 24 districts, throughout the entire country, it is a pride, a luxury, “said Larreta at a conference.
The most forceful message was given by Jorge Macri, hours after lowering his candidacy for deputy. “Going to the STEP in Province opens the risk of division and is functional to Kirchnerism,” he said in an interview with Clarín hours after declining his application.
Diego Santilli with Horacio Rodríguez Larreta in Lanús.
He also warned that the fracture that the PASO can generate later can be reflected in the Deliberative Councils and in the chambers of deputies and senators of the Province. “Not only did I put aside my candidacy but I continue to ask the current candidates seeking a unit roster”.
Cristian Ritondo completed the declarative PRO triad by pointing out in a tour of Moreno with Alex Campbell, reference of María Eugenia Vidal in PBA, that “we need to be united so that they do not take away our hope and the future.”
His was a double message, not only aimed at the allies, but also within the PRO, so that there are no inmates between moderate and hard in the 135 Buenos Aires municipalities, something that today seems difficult.
From the party of Elisa Carrió, standing behind the candidacy of the Buenos Aires deputy head of government, they take for granted that there will be STEP. “Everything indicates that we are going to an internal confrontation in Together, between Facundo Manes and Diego Santilli ”, said Andrés De Leo, president of the Buenos Aires CC-ARI.
“In any case, we will work to reach a agreement from here until the last day, because we believe that unity is the ideal situation ”, he analyzed.
Manes’ candidacy emboldens the UCR. As they say in the party, the neuroscientist has a lot to grow. “It generates expectation in society because It is plural, many Peronists, progressives, independent, they support it, in addition to being radical, it transcends the party labels “, he told Clarion one of the top leaders of the Province Committee.
Facundo Manes and Maximiliano Abad, head of the Buenos Aires Province Committee.
Manes also garnered the support of Margarita Stolbizer, from GEN; of Emilio Monzó, former head of the Chamber of Deputies, which will be discounted on his ballot, and of Joaquín De la Torre, electoral alchemist of the Buenos Aires anti-K PJ, another who also sounds like a potential candidate for provincial senator in the First section .
It was even mentioned that leaders of “The Territorial”, a sector of the PRO made up of former officials and former mayors of the macrismo, had been tempted to join the Manes project, to strengthen their possibilities in the first and third cordon of the Conurbano.
That possibility was ruled out by the leaders of the movement, who refer to Vidal and Larreta and decided to join the column behind the electoral strategy defined in Uspallata, the seat of the Buenos Aires government, and they hope to have interference in the assembly of district lists.
In the Buenos Aires radicalism they see as a self-fulfilling prophecy what is happening in the different Buenos Aires municipalities, where the internal ones between the PRO and the UCR are boiling. “The decision to force an intern with Santilli generated a crisis everywhere”, they blame.
They mark that the decision to have two lists of Together for Change compete will make the Front of All come out first everywhere, due to the division of the opposition vote, precisely the photo that was wanted to avoid in these legislatures. And not only that, they point out that it was also put in crisis municipalities management made up of leaders of both parties.
Moreover, in the last hours from the Buenos Aires radicalism the 33 mayors of the UCR in PBA were asked to ask the secretaries of the PRO of their municipalities who make their resignation available. They justify it as a “Ethical question” and they point out that it is not correct to make an intern to the mayor of which one is an official.
The “impossible” formula
There is another detail, which generates more uncertainty: nobody knows in Together what the lists will be like the day after STEP.
This will be the distribution of positions of National Deputies in “Together” in the Province of Buenos Aires.
The calculation today seems impossible; even having all the names of holders and alternates, no one dares to venture who could circumvent the internal to be the definitive candidates of the space.
Both lists know that they will exceed 20% of the votes set as the electoral floor, a necessary condition to be “qualified to integrate the lists of candidates who will compete in the General Elections.”
The problem is the “algorithm”. The formula embodied in the papers does not allow us to foresee how the post-internment opposition army will be formed. According to the document you had access to Clarion and whose veracity was confirmed by both the leaders of the UCR and the PRO, the formulas are complex.
This says the document:
When the lists of candidates that exceed the electoral floor are two, the distribution of the places will be carried out as follows:
to. Lists headed by candidates of different gender:
i. When the second most voted list within the alliance obtains up to 30% of the valid votes cast, the minority will be integrated into the titular places 4th, 9th, 14th, 19th, 24th, 29th, 34th and alternates 4th and 9th;
ii) When the list that gets the second place within the alliance obtains more than 30% and up to 40% of the valid votes cast, the minority will be integrated into the titular places 4th, 7th, 10th, 13th, 16th, 19th, 22nd, 25th, 28th, 31st, 34th and alternates 4th and 7th;
iii) When the list that gets the second place within the alliance obtains more than 40% of the valid votes cast, the minority will be integrated into the titular places 2nd, 5th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 13th , 14th, 17th, 18th, 21st, 22nd, 25th, 26th, 29th, 30th, 33rd, 34th and alternates 2nd, 5th, 6th and 9th. 2.b.
Lists headed by candidates of the same gender:
i. When the list that gets the second place within the alliance obtains up to 30% of the valid votes cast, the minority will be integrated into the titular places 3 °, 8 °, 13 °, 18 °, 23 °, 28 °, 33 And alternate 5th.
ii) When the list that gets the second place within the alliance obtains more than 30% and up to 40% of the valid votes cast, the minority will be integrated into the titular places 3rd, 6th, 9th, 12th, 15th, 18th, 21st, 24th, 27th, 30th, 33rd and alternates for 3rd, 6th and 9th;
iii) When the list that gets the second place within the alliance obtains more than 40% of the valid votes cast, the minority will be integrated into the titular places 3rd, 4th, 7th, 8th, 11th, 12th , 15th, 16th, 19th, 20th, 23rd, 24th, 27th, 28th, 31st, 32nd, 35th and alternates 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th. 3.
And it adds a further clarification that marks that “when the lists of candidates that exceed the electoral floor are more than two, the distribution of places will be carried out by applying the D’Hont proportional representation system.”
List-making engineering also makes another point: the little deconstructed that the Buenos Aires policy is at the time of the assembly of lists to the point that the Quota law puts the preparation of candidacies in check due to the lack of women leaders.
“Based on the regulations, no one guarantees anything. There is no guarantee that the names you put will end up entering, this system does not give predictability”, Says a senior leader of the provincial UCR.
There is also the economic cost of doing an intern in each of the 135 municipalities of the Province of Buenos Aires, the ballots, supervising those elections in duplicate, and another thing that they leave to transcend is that there is still no foreseeable what the day after I STEP them around the generals campaign.
“Whoever loses the PASO, what is it like, do they integrate it and then ‘back to your house’ will I return in November?”, Asked several on the Juntos front.
The last factor of concern is the level of bellicosity of the inmate. Are there fair play rules for the Primary? No, there is not. There was only a declaration of will, handshakes and little else. Nothing written on paper.
This is how the places will be distributed on the lists
The 16 parties that make up the “Together” alliance in the Province of Buenos Aires.
This will be the distribution of positions of National Deputies in “Together” in the Province of Buenos Aires.
Electoral floor of Provincial Deputies and Senators.
Distribution of positions in the legislative categories.
The distribution of office of Councilors.
The electoral floor of the School Counselors.
How the positions of School Counselors are distributed.