The final photograph of the elections in Madrid does not show chiaroscuro. An overwhelming victory for Isabel Díaz Ayuso and the PP. And a debacle, much higher even than what was announced, by Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE, which first fell to the third drawer in 2019, tied for seats with Más Madrid.
There was an Ayuso effect. Wow, there was! His policy of direct confrontation with Sánchez and his controversial performance in the face of the pandemic received the applause in the form of a vote of almost 45% of Madrid’s. With this, those of Pablo Casado, who two years ago obtained their worst result in regional elections (30 seats and 22.23% of the votes) doubled their representation.
The Madrid president has done two important jobs for her party: engulf Citizens and stop Vox, whose abstention will be enough to repeat in office. Quite a gift for Casado who, after some complicated years marked by corruption, and setbacks in Euskadi and Catalonia, sees how his commitment to the reunification of the center-right advances without having to depend on Vox. Although yes, Madrid does not vote like the rest of Spain.
The cross is for the PSOE and for Pedro Sánchez who yesterday completed the circle of failures that started two months ago with the failed motion of censure in Murcia prepared in Moncloa. After a dreadful campaign, in which Sánchez went from being fully involved to practically disappearing. After changing the moderation in search of the C’s vote, which he did not succeed in, to join Pablo Iglesias in his confrontational strategy, the Socialists reaped their worst result in Madrid.
And it is that Gabilondo’s list not only leaves 13 of the 37 seats it obtained in 2019. More Madrid, with the same seats and a few more ballots, displaced him to an unknown third place. With this, the alternative left, the formations of Errejón and Iglesias, add up for the first time more than the PSOE.
Pedro Sánchez is now faced with a serious dilemma, even though Errejón’s formation is a weightless party outside of Madrid: to try to stretch the national legislature or not. And, if so, for how long.
There is the option that the popular Moreno Bonilla, with the polls in favor, quickly advance the Andalusian autonomous communities, taking advantage of the fact that the PSOE has not yet settled the replacement of Susana Díaz that Sánchez wants. There are serious doubts that, in light of the new Catalan political map, ERC continues to be the usual ally that the president needs in Congress. Continuing to understand each other with EH Bildu doesn’t seem like the best idea either, at least outside of Euskadi and Navarra. And accepting the cuts that Europe demands of us in exchange for its multimillion-dollar help to get out of the crisis could end up fracturing the government coalition and lead the PSOE to go yes or yes to the polls in even more precarious conditions.