The PSOE believes that it will maintain all its regional power in the May elections prior to the 2023 general elections
It has not always been well understood with a good part of them. Moreover, some, such as the Castilian-Manchego Emiliano García-Page or the Aragonese Javier Lambán, have established themselves in their land by projecting a discourse that clearly clashed with that of the Government, for example, in regard to the relationship with secessionist forces. But the barons of the PSOE, related or not, have now become the best asset at Pedro Sánchez’s disposal to reverse, in the regional elections in May, the feeling of the end of the cycle on which the PP tries to build an alternative.
At the expense of how things may evolve in the eight months that lie ahead, in a scenario of very high inflation, the Socialists are in a position to retain all the territorial power conquered in 2019, which would mean governing in eight of the twelve regions in contention (thirteen if Alfonso Fernández Mañueco changes his mind and calls the polls again). It is a sufficient figure, they maintain in Ferraz, to dilute the effect caused by the victories of the PP in the elections held in Madrid in 2021, in Castilla y León, in February, and above all, in Andalusia last June. “The PP advanced the elections in three places that were favorable to it to create a climate that does not correspond to the reality of other territories,” they insist.
The only community about which the party’s leadership admits having certain doubts is that of La Rioja, in which Concha Andreu governs with Podemos and the external support of IU. In the other eight –Asturias, Navarra, Castilla-La Mancha, Aragón, Comunidad Valenciana, Baleares, Extremadura and Canarias– the scenario is, in his opinion, much more promising.
The socialists see Adrián Barbón very settled in Asturias; they have no doubts about the continuity of Ángel Víctor Torres in the Canary archipelago; they assure that, in part thanks to the division of the right, María Chivite has everything to repeat in Navarra – a community that had resisted them for many years and that the PSOE conquered in 2019 thanks to a controversial pact with Geroa Bai, Podemos and Izquierda-Ezkerra that went ahead with Bildu’s abstention–, and, despite the fact that Javier Lambán governs in Aragón in an a priori four-party complex with Podemos-Equo, CHA and PAR, they take it for granted that he will be president again. “He is very strong,” they remark.
When you get down to detail, the socialists recognize some shadows in other territories. Both Ximo Puig, in the Valencian Community, and Francina Armengol, in the Balearic Islands, things could go wrong not because of their own electoral performance, which “will be good”, they emphasize, but because of that of their partners. Neither Compromís nor Podemos are going through their best moment and both what Mes and the purple ones on the islands can do suppose, they agree, an unknown quantity.
differentiated vote
Guillermo Fernández Vara, in Extremadura, and García-Page, in Castilla-La Mancha, are two solid candidates but they are bound to win by an absolute majority because in their communities only three parties will obtain representation and the third in discord will be, in both cases, Vox. Today, in any case, the accounts come out, despite the fact that there is some fear that national politics will contaminate the elections for the worse. It has happened on other occasions, but the general feeling is that, more and more, citizens differentiate the vote depending on the type of election they face.
Sánchez, who on Saturday gathered in Zaragoza all the regional presidents, the territorial leaders, the highest representation of the mayors and the socialist federal executive to lay the foundations for the programs with which the next elections will be held, has, with everything , more ambition than that of the PSOE becoming strong in its current positions. His goal is to recover the government in large provincial capitals. And even in recent weeks he has encouraged the idea, which not a few in the party observe with skepticism, of governing in the Madrid City Council, in the hands of the PP for 33 years.
“In the Community we have no options, but if Isabel Díaz Ayuso does not obtain an absolute majority and even loses a deputy and we take over the city, the PP will drop the speech,” they argue in the socialist leadership. That objective is what has led Sánchez to rule out the Government delegate, Mercedes González, as a candidate, in search of a headliner with enough pull to return his party to second position (in 2019, with Pepu Hernández , also personal bet of the president, were fourth). All eyes are on ministers such as Pilar Llop, Fernando Grande-Marlaska, Margarita Robles or Reyes Maroto. But socialist sources admit that the position is not very seductive for someone who is part of the Government of Spain.
In 2019 the PSOE took over 22 provincial capitals. However, he only governs in one of the five main Spanish cities: Seville. Their expectations are to keep it, despite the progress of the PP in the recent elections, and also add Barcelona –for some the most feasible–, Valencia or Zaragoza. “We’re going all out,” the president said by way of declaration of intent at the opening of the course.
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