The Socialists admit the volatility of their majority, but hold on to the fact that they have already saved two decrees without ERC
The headlines said that another heart-stopping vote for the Government was coming. The chronicles spoke of a day in which the precariousness of their support would become evident. And yet, when this Thursday the Minister of the Presidency, Félix Bolaños -the man on whom Pedro Sánchez has placed the responsibility of greasing the majority of the investiture-, went up to the speakers’ rostrum to defend the anti-crisis plan, he did not find a socialist bench muted by the tension but many empty seats; also those of the Executive, only occupied by the first vice president, Nadia Calviño. «We have already had so many critical days, so many historic votes behind us -summarizes a PSOE deputy- that we no longer even experience it with anguish. But there is an obvious psychological exhaustion.
Socialists have become accustomed to living permanently on the wire. They knew this would be the case when they opted to form a government coalition with a party, Podemos, which claimed to have entered politics to challenge the 1978 regime and to go hand in hand with a party, Esquerra, whose main political objective is to proclaim , although now it is considered as a thirty-year goal, the independence of Catalonia. However, overcoming the midpoint of the legislature in an arduous context – a pandemic and now the shocks to the economy of the war in Ukraine – has imbued them with a certain feeling of invincibility.
In last Thursday’s session there was not a single one of the Government’s usual allies who did not warn him that his trust deposit is already at a minimum. But in Moncloa and in the leadership of the socialist group they are left with another message: that, despite all the noise of the previous days, the royal decree law to mitigate the consequences of high inflation obtained an absolute majority (176 votes in favor, by 172 against and one abstention).
As happened with the labor reform -this time not because of the content of the decree itself but because of the alleged espionage with the Pegasus ‘software’ on more than 60 independentistas between 2017 and 2020-, Esquerra turned his back on them. Instead, Bildu, who generally acts in common interest with the Republicans and also had two spies in his ranks, Arnaldo Otegi and Jon Iñarritu, decided to vote in favor and save the government the ballot.
ERC denies that there was an agreement with his Basque colleagues to share the roles and allow them, under great pressure from Junts and the CUP, to exercise a punishment vote without inflicting irreversible damage on Sánchez. Be that as it may, the result of the vote ratifies the Socialists that their allies’ fear of elections that could lift the right to Moncloa is their best lifesaver. And now they take it for granted that they will be able to redirect the relationship with the Generalitat without paying more than the price already assumed: an overnight change in the rule to allow the entry of secessionists in the official secrets commission of Congress despite the opposition of more than two fifths of the Chamber (PP, Vox, Cs).
unaffordable dismissal
Not everyone in the PSOE is so optimistic. Among other things, because this same Friday, not only ERC but also Podemos insisted on linking the closure of the crisis with the dismissal of the Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, as head of the CNI, to whom the alleged punctures are attributed. Although in the socialist ranks themselves they admit that the minister “has not helped” with her statements to placate her critics, nobody believes that Sánchez is willing to bear the cost of her dismissal. Even less a month and a half before Spain hosts the next NATO summit. The same Thursday he assured that he has his support.
In Moncloa they are counting on the fact that in the nearest horizon there will be no relevant votes and, despite the fact that all its partners have disdained the solution to which the Government clings – the appearance this week of the director of the intelligence services, Paz Esteban , before the secrets commission – continue to trust that the report he has prepared will turn the situation around. “The government is doing what it should and is doing it very quickly,” they argue. Neither resignations nor the commission of investigation demanded by the PNV or Más País are contemplated.
Sánchez, who has opted to blatantly stay out of this crisis, maintains the idea, according to what they say in his environment, of lengthening the legislature to the maximum. “The ‘dialogue’ – they remember as someone who warns that he is playing with a wild card – is also the ERC’s political commitment”.
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