Matteo Salvini Ukrainian refugees
THE NEW STRATEGY OF SALVINI AND THE LEGA
Curated by Alessandro Amadori, pollster
On the occasion of the outbreak of the war in Ukrainethe leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, has taken positions that have surprised several commentators. As is well known, Salvini has placed himself on a line of refusal not only of one military interventionbut also of a massive dispatch of weapons and other war equipment to the Ukrainian armed forces, preferring to focus on the humanitarian question (undoubtedly huge: it is estimated that in the end there will be four million refugees to assist and redeploy in Europe), on the search for a diplomatic solution and on the reception of refugees themselves, also in Italy (they could be, in this case, one million). There are two questions: is this a contradiction with respect to the political line expressed by Salvini in recent years? And this repositioning will create an electoral advantage or disadvantage for the League?
As for the first question, the contradiction is only apparent. Salvini in fact, he has always expressed very clear positions on the need, from his point of view, to block those migratory flows that would have at the base exclusively or mainly economic reasons, always saying that he is in favor of welcoming those fleeing from theaters of war. One may or may not agree with this Salvinian distinction, one may or may not like the different attitude towards the “economic migrants“On the one hand, and the”real war refugees” on the other.
But it must be recognized that there has never been any political opposition on the part of Salvini, to the idea that those fleeing a war must be welcomed and helped. From this point of view, his current position must be considered as coherent, and in line of continuity, with his traditional narrative on the problem of immigration. Even the assumption of a position, in a broad sense, pacifist, as surprising as it may be, is coherent with some pillars of the narrative Salvinian. You may or may not like his often referring to Christian values, his devotion to the Marian figure may appear more or less sincere, but it must be admitted that, for a person who proclaims Christian, the orientation towards the search for a primarily diplomatic solution, even for a terrible event like that of the war in Ukraine, is an understandable and not contradictory choice. If not even necessary.
That said, the second question remains. Beyond his personal beliefs, he agrees to Salvini this pro-welcoming and pro-diplomacy positioning? Italian public opinion is deeply shaken by what is happening in Ukraine, and a large majority has developed a feeling of closeness and empathy towards Ukrainians who suffer and seek refuge in Europe. Even the most uncompromising supporters of a rigorous policy towards immigration “illegal”, In the case of the Ukrainian refugees they see nothing illegal in their trying to enter other countries, to save themselves. And, indeed, they are in favor of an active reception policy, as the Poles are doing with great enthusiasm (despite the fact that, in the past, even their government was rather rigid on the issue of migration). We are in a phase in which, fortunately, the spirit of humanity prevails over any other consideration. Stressing the importance of diplomacy is also a topic that meets the favor of the majority of citizens.
In conclusion, the adoption of a position of openness to receptionand enhancement of the diplomatic lever, by Salvini, although it may surprise us (compared to the image of the “Captain” that characterized Salvini), it is neither contradictory nor far from the sentiment of the large majority of the center-right electorate. If this can then translate into an increase in consensus, it will depend on the ability to Salvini to give life to something more than the expression of a position. If Salvini will mobilize himself and his party in a major operation aid to refugees fleeing a bloody warand in the search for a diplomatic solution, even possibly addressing the Russian presidency directly, it is possible that his image as a “man of the state” will strengthen, and that his electoral support will grow.
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