Producers of cereals in Russia have warned retail chains of a 10-20 percent increase in prices for buckwheat, oatmeal and cereals in November due to the increase in the cost of raw materials and packaging. About it writes Kommersant.
According to the newspaper, a large manufacturer “Rosa” has warned partners to increase prices from November 4 for most of the items by 10-20 percent. The chain of grocery stores “Verny” confirmed receipt of a notification from groats producers about an average price increase of 15 percent.
In addition, more than ten of the largest Russian producers of sausages and sausages warned retailers about a 7-20 percent rise in prices from late October to early November. This is due to rising prices for raw materials – detergents, packaging, egg melange and meat itself. Thus, beef rose in price by 11 percent, chicken – by 13 percent, and pork – by 29 percent.
In the longer term, experts predict a rise in the price of fertilizers and, as a result, vegetables, fruits and grain crops. The reason for this may be the energy crisis that has gripped Europe. Western producers massively reduce or even suspend production due to high prices for the fuel needed to create fertilizers, since their production costs are based on the gas component. This may lead to the fact that Russian producers will turn their attention entirely to the European market, which will be ready to purchase raw materials even at maximum prices. In this case, there may not be enough fertilizers for the domestic market, and the domestic harvest will fall.
In addition, as noted by the representative of the agricultural holding “AFG National”, the cost of production of cereals is growing. According to him, over the past year, the price of polypropylene and cardboard containers has grown by more than 100 percent, and Russian raw materials – by a third. The main increase in prices is observed for buckwheat, the minimum – for rice. However, problems with the harvest have already become the reason for the increase in prices for buckwheat in the Altai Territory. Over the year, they grew from 57 to more than 80 rubles per kilogram, despite the fact that this region is the main supplier of buckwheat in the country.
Inflation will be another reason for the rise in prices. At the end of 2021, the Central Bank of Russia expects inflation to reach 7.4-7.9 percent. The Central Bank notes that prices are growing much faster than the July forecast, according to which the indicator was supposed to reach the level of 5.7-6.2 percent. By October 18, inflation accelerated to 7.8 percent. Experts associate such a high figure with the increase in prices for vegetables in August, but note that other products, the cost of which is not considered volatile, have also risen in price.
In general, global problems affect the rise in prices in Russia: supply disruptions and the consequences of the pandemic. The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina called the situation with inflation potentially dangerous and did not rule out a further increase in the key rate to 8.5 percent.
In the international arena, the rise in food prices is also associated with the desire to save the planet from the effects of global warming. Analysts believe that humanity’s struggle for the environment and ecology will lead to an inevitable increase in prices for almost all goods around the world. States are forced to introduce additional restrictions to stimulate production towards environmental transformation, which will require additional costs and lead to the so-called green inflation.
The government has developed a number of measures to combat the rise in food prices. They are aimed at amortizing prices as well as supporting producers. In particular, in 2021, enterprises will additionally receive subsidies in the amount of 10 billion rubles to compensate for part of the cost of purchasing feed for livestock. Starting next, 2022, the emphasis in state support will be placed on this particular sub-sector of the economy. This, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agriculture, will increase the volume of meat production and avoid price fluctuations.
In addition, according to Vedomosti, the government has launched a new system in Russia to combat price increases. It involves the construction of economic models describing the dependence of prices in the domestic market on the situation in the world. In this case, home prices will be expressed in special indices. For each category of goods, the developers have defined their own risk profile – the acceptable range of price increases. If it is violated, the government will have to submit proposals to remedy the situation. The main goal of the system is to achieve a situation in which the rise in prices for most goods will remain within the general target inflation.
However, against the background of a sharp rise in prices even for basic foodstuffs, Valery Mironov, chief economist at the HSE Development Center Foundation for Economic Research, predicted the introduction of food stamps in Russia for the poorest segments of the population. The analyst concluded that introducing coupons for the poorest segments of the population was better than giving away money that could be spent on other goods.
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