Kommersant: by the end of the year, economic growth slowed and optimism in industry weakened
At the end of the year, the Russian economy began to slow down. GDP grew 4.4 percent in November, worse than 5.1 percent in October and 5.6 percent in September. According to experts, it will not be possible to achieve comparable growth rates in the foreseeable future, writes “Kommersant”.
If we exclude seasonality, economic growth in November was 0.04 percent, which is indistinguishable from zero growth, taking into account the accuracy of the methodology. In general, over 11 months, GDP grew by 3.3 percent compared to 2022 and by 1.2 percent compared to 2021.
Also in November, the growth rate of industrial production slowed down – from 5.3 percent in October to 4.3 percent. The intra-annual dynamics of output has remained at a near-zero level since May. Compared to October, industry grew by 0.2 percent, and then fell by 0.4 percent compared to September. The decline in production accelerated from 0.1 percent in October to 0.4 percent in November. The energy sector shows a decrease in the index by 0.5 percent.
Rosstat polls show that industrial optimism declined in November. The business confidence index in mining fell by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1 percent, and in processing by 1.5 percentage points to 5.1 percent.
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Processing enterprises assess current demand and production prospects worse. Despite the increase in the average level of capacity utilization, the number of employees is assessed as insufficient to implement the tasks. At the same time, the possibilities for increasing personnel by luring employees from competing enterprises have virtually been exhausted.
Earlier, Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina compared the economic situation to an overheated car engine. According to her, if measures are not taken to cool it, the situation could get out of control. She calls the main problem of the Russian economy the labor shortage in almost all industries, which cannot be compensated for by cheap loans.
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