Australia warns coal prices will fall by a third in five years
Australian authorities have downgraded their forecast for coal prices in the short and medium term, although they do not expect a drop in fuel exports. About this with reference to the assessment of the Ministry of Industry, Science and Resources of the country writes “Kommersant”.
Last year, the average cost of metallurgical coal was $298 per ton. This year it could fall to $277, and in five years, in 2029, by more than a third, to $185 per ton.
If the warning comes true, Russian coal companies will face a significant drop in revenue. Already, the delivery of goods through the ports of the European part of Russia has become difficult in terms of profitability due to high tariffs for transportation by rail, transshipment and freight. In addition, if exports fall, prices for coal within the country will fall.
The industry's problem is the decline in steel production in Asia. It is also due to the slowdown in the construction sector in China, which is turning from a locomotive into a brake on the Chinese economy.
It was previously reported that in January-February 2024, China, amid the introduction of import duties, sharply reduced purchases of Russian coal. In annual terms, deliveries decreased by 22.4 percent.
Exports to India and Turkey fell 55 and 47 percent respectively in January. And in February, coal production in Russia fell to its lowest level since August last year. According to sources, the overall drop in Russian coal exports in January and February was 9.6 percent.
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