Ukraine is not going to fall completely flat with its ammunition shortage, even if the US aid package to Ukraine collapses. During the spring, arms aid also flows into Ukraine from other Western allies, but it is still not as large.
Ukrainian there will be some relief for the ammo shortage. 180,000 artillery shells should arrive on the Eastern Front via the Czech Republic in the coming months.
In March, the Czech Republic began to collect money from the member states of the European Union a total of 800,000 artillery shells for procurement for Ukraine. On Monday, the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic Petr Fiala told in The Financial Times, that the country has now agreed on the delivery of the first batch of 180,000 ammunition. According to Fiela, the Czech Republic is also currently negotiating the next batch of 300,000 ammunition.
So, Ukraine is not going to fall completely flat with its ammunition shortage, if the package of arms aid to Ukraine prepared by the United States fails in the vote of the House of Representatives.
HS asked the experts what kind of non-US military aid Ukraine is receiving from its Western allies during the spring, and whether it could survive the spring with European support.
A worker at a US ammunition factory processes a 155 millimeter artillery shell on a production line. It is precisely these types of ammunition that Ukraine currently has a severe shortage of.
Artillery shells dwindling has significantly crippled Ukraine's warfare. The advance on the eastern front stopped last autumn largely because of the shortage of ammunition. Without artillery fire on the front, you won't be able to move forward much.
Military professor at the National Defense University Marko Palokangas estimates that the batch of 180,000 artillery shells to be delivered under the Czech lead may run out in a few weeks or months.
“Ammunition wear depends, of course, on the force with which the war is fought. There may be days when Ukraine fires 500 grenades a day, and there may be days when Ukraine fires 5,000 grenades a day. Therefore, it is impossible to say precisely whether the ammunition will last a month or whether it will run out in a few weeks.”
However, if Russia gathers its forces on Ukraine's eastern front during the spring and tightens the pace of the war, Ukraine may have to fire up to 10,000 grenades a day to maintain its defense line.
“If we go according to this calculation formula, the first batch of artillery ammunition delivered by the Czech Republic may run out in just a few weeks,” says Palokangas.
From the point of view of the support provided by the Czech Republic, the decisive factor is how quickly the country can secure the deliveries of the next artillery pieces to Ukraine.
Marko Palokangas, military professor at the National Defense University.
With artillery shells is important at the front. However, Ukraine is also vulnerable from the air.
Russia has put a heavy strain on the country's air defense throughout the beginning of the year. Ukraine has always emphasized that it would need more anti-aircraft missiles to protect against Russian airstrikes.
“The state of Ukraine's air defense is at least as critical as the ammunition shortage,” says the deputy director of the Estonian International Defense Research Center Kristi Raik.
Germany announced over the weekend that it will supply Ukraine with the third unit of the Patriot anti-missile defense system. Previously Holland and Denmark again have promised to confirm Air defense of Ukraine with US F-16 fighters.
In addition, the Netherlands has promised to supply Ukraine separately with one hundred anti-aircraft guns and Czech-made long-range surveillance systems.
However, the countries have not given any exact date for their deliveries. The talk has been very overwhelming about the past year. Raik states that European countries' support for Ukraine's air defense is hardly immediate at the moment.
“Ukraine does hold bilateral discussions with different countries all the time, but it is difficult to assess how much hope it has of quickly strengthening its air defense.”
Kristi Raik, deputy director of the Estonian International Defense Research Center.
Overall picture it is difficult to establish all the arms aid going to Ukraine during the spring.
The countries arming Ukraine systematically refrain from giving information to the public about how many weapon systems or ammunition they deliver to Ukraine and when they deliver them. The effort is, on the one hand, to ensure the safety of transportation and, on the other hand, to prevent Russia from getting an accurate idea of Ukraine's material strength.
According to Palokanka, attention should not be tied only to arms aid to Ukraine, even though it is quite critical in terms of the country's defense capability.
“Arms aid is the most visible and much talked about part of how the Western allies support Ukraine. In addition to that, they also provide Ukraine with humanitarian, political and financial support. They are just as important support for Ukraine as arms aid.”
The intelligence shared by the allies to Ukraine can also be thought of as a kind of support, Palokangas points out.
“It's really valuable support for Ukraine.”
of the United States with military support faltering, European countries have realized that Ukraine's ability to resist Russia depends more and more on the help they provide.
The combined military support of European countries to Ukraine has already exceeded the amount of support given by the United States. Compared to the US arms aid, the support of the European allies moves only more slowly and does not seem to reach Ukraine at least in large quantities before the summer.
“Until a year ago, it seemed that US military aid to Ukraine was irreplaceable. In this sense, significant progress has been made in Europe, as US support is no longer irreplaceable to the same extent. Right now, however, Ukraine would need the United States' military aid so that it can survive until European support arrives at the front,” says Raik.
A Ukrainian soldier fires an anti-aircraft cannon on the outskirts of the city of Bahmut in Ukraine.
In Raiki's opinion, the situation in Ukraine should still not be seen as completely subordinate to what the decision of the US House of Representatives regarding arms aid will be in the end.
“At the moment, very dark messages are coming from Ukraine about the criticality of the situation. This still does not mean that Ukraine is about to lose. Although Russia is trying to make maximum use of Ukraine's underarm, its ability to advance in significant amounts is not necessarily very bad. In particular, the ability of the Russian armed forces for coordinated action still seems quite weak.”
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