Russian attack | Ukraine says it incited thousands of Russians to Lyman, and that is a humiliation for Putin, Pekka Toveri thinks

“Until now, Ukraine has not managed to capture such a large number of Russians,” says Pekka Toveri, former intelligence chief of the Defense Forces.

Ukraine says that he has surrounded the Russian forces in the strategically important city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine. Spokesman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhii Cherevatyi announced this in a television interview on Saturday, reports news agency Reuters.

“Lyman is important because it is the next step in the liberation of Donbas, which belongs to Ukraine. It offers an opportunity to move deeper towards Kreminna and Severodonetsk”, Cherevatyi said in an interview.

The siege of Lyman and the defeat of the Russian troops in Lyman would be Ukraine’s biggest victory since the Ukrainian armed forces managed to drive the Russian troops out of the Kharkiv area in early September.

During the previous days, Ukraine has managed to capture villages near Lyman. The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) already estimated on Friday that Ukraine will take over Lyman in the next three days.

Ukrainian according to the information provided, there are currently between 5,000 and 5,500 Russian soldiers stationed in the besieged city of Lyman. The number of trapped soldiers may be lower than this due to losses and attempts to break the moti.

According to Cherevatyi, the operation around Lyman is still in progress, and he said in a TV interview that the Russian troops are trying to break through the moat in order to escape to their own defense line.

“Some have surrendered. There are many dead and wounded, but the operation is not over yet,” Cherevatyi said.

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Ukrainian governor of the Luhansk region Serhi Haidai according to the Russian soldiers would have asked for a safe passage out of the city, but Ukraine would not have agreed to this request.

Eastern Ukraine Lyman, located in the Donetsk region, has served for months as Russia’s logistics and transportation center for the forces operating in the northern parts of the country’s armed forces region.

Without Lyman, Russia would have to re-plan its logistics in eastern Ukraine, which is why recapturing the city from Russia would be a big success for the Ukrainian armed forces.

Russian representatives have so far not commented on the information reported by Ukraine about Lyman’s blockade, Reuters reports.

Soldiers affixed a Ukrainian flag to a sign in the town of Lyman in a video released by the Office of the President of Ukraine shared on Saturday.

Russian encouraging troops to Lyman would be “quite a humiliation” for Russia, estimates the former intelligence chief of the Defense Forces, major general evp. Pekka Toveri.

“Until now, Ukraine has not managed to capture such a large number of Russians. In the counterattack seen in early September, the Russians were still able to break away, even though they left a considerable amount of equipment in the hands of the Ukrainians,” Toveri says.

The comrade says that past military history shows that Russian troops have been successfully encircled in the past, but since then Russian soldiers have managed to break through and escape.

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Friend still makes it clear that Ukraine is trying its best to keep the Russian soldiers at bay and eventually take them as prisoners of war. 5,000 soldiers are responsible for four to five combat divisions, the loss of which number would make a big dent in Russia’s defense. Prisoners of war would also be useful for a later prisoner exchange.

If Russia does not get the motte broken, according to Tover’s assessment, the Russian troops in Lyman will hardly be able to continue the fight much longer than a week.

“A lot depends on how much material the Russians have in stock. When the ammunition, food and fuel run out, the fighting stops. On the other hand, when surrounded, if it seems that no help is coming, the will to fight can end earlier.”

Is it is still too early to judge how the blockade of Lyman will affect the next events of the war. It depends on whether the Ukrainian forces can advance quickly from Lyman towards Kreminna and Severodonetsk, further east, or whether Russia can regroup its defense line there before then.

“If Ukraine is not able to take advantage of this for a wider advance, we are only talking about occupying an area of ​​twenty kilometers.”

Comrade also reminds that Ukraine has continued to counterattack in the same direction for many weeks.

“We cannot know exactly what condition the Ukrainian forces are in. Even a successful attack always consumes troops: men and ammunition are lost. Will Ukraine send more troops to support the counteroffensive? It will be clear in the next few weeks.”

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Last week, Russia started a so-called partial deployment, the purpose of which is to bring additional strength to the front. So far, this has not been useful, at least in the direction of Luhansk and Donetsk, Toveri estimates.

“In Russia, the rush is terrible and the emergency is severe. According to the information received so far, tankmen have been sent to the front without training. The combat value of these troops is not great. On the other hand, according to estimates, in southern Ukraine in the direction of Kherson, Russia has fifty combat battalions, which have rested well, but apparently With Putin there has been no willingness to move them out of there, because control of southern Ukraine is considered more important than the Luhansk region.”

Timing The blockade of Lyman is particularly embarrassing for President Putin, who just announced on Friday that Russia will join Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to the Russian Federation.

Lyman is part of the Donetsk administrative region, which until now has actually only been about half held by Russian forces. From Lyman, it is possible for Ukraine to advance towards Luhansk, which has been practically completely conquered by Russia since June.

“Putin has annexed these areas to Russia with his own consent, and now Ukraine is taking them back, and he cannot prevent it. It’s a humiliation for Putin,” says Toveri.

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