Foreign countries|Russian invasion
Docent of military sciences Ilmari Käihkö reminds that in addition to the domestic political audience, Putin’s peace speeches have a global audience, which is often forgotten in Western countries.
Russian president Vladimir Putin on Thursday evening ordered a ceasefire in Ukraine from Friday to Saturday for the Orthodox Christmas. The wish is said to have come from the patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church From Kirillwho has previously expressed support for a war of aggression against Russia.
The 36-hour ceasefire begins on Friday at 12 noon Moscow time and lasts until midnight on Saturday, January 7. That’s when Christmas according to the Julian calendar, traditionally celebrated in Russia and Ukraine, ends.
“Militarily, the cease-fire has no great function,” he says Visiting researcher at the Aleksanteri Institute of the University of Helsinki Ilmari Käihkö.
Ilmari Käihkö, docent of military sciences at the Swedish National Defense University and visiting researcher at the Alexander Institute of the University of Helsinki.
Käihkö believes that this is largely Russia’s own publicity stunt, with which Putin wants to show that he is not an obstacle to peace.
“It’s usually a problem in these ceasefires that the person proposing the ceasefire has his own interests,” says Käihkö.
“Yes, it is Russia that is suffering, and Ukraine is the one that should move forward.”
Cease-fire would primarily serve the Russians, because during that time Russia would have the opportunity to change the balance of power: move and maintain its troops, improve its positions and bring in more troops, Käihkö says.
“Putin has just said that if Ukraine agrees to territorial concessions, then we can talk about peace. This is a situation that Ukraine does not accept. That’s why it feels a bit like a propaganda trick, and Russia knows for sure that there is a high probability that Ukraine will not accept this offer”, says Käihkö.
“I think there won’t be a ceasefire there.”
If Putin’s the message to the world is a wish for peace, Ukrainians can answer that we can talk about it when Russia leaves Ukraine, says Käihkö.
The advisor to the President of Ukraine also had the same opinion Myhailo Podoljakwho stated on Twitter on Thursday evening that Russia will get its “temporary ceasefire” after it leaves the territories it has seized from Ukraine.
Cease fire According to Käihkö, the proposal is Russia’s domestic political game, which also includes “religious propaganda”.
Also the director of the Alexander Institute Markku Kangaspuro guessed to HS earlier on Thursday that the cease-fire announcement is above all about Russian political propaganda.
In Finland and in Western countries, it is often forgotten that Russia’s actions have a global audience. Putin also sends a message to the rest of the world, which is not necessarily in support of Ukraine like Western countries, Käihkö says.
“It is Erdoğan and India who have pushed Putin towards peace,” Käihkö says.
President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was also offered by the President of Ukraine by phone earlier on Thursday to Volodymyr Zelenskyi help to achieve peace.
“A large part of the world does not condemn Russia, and that is not necessarily why they condemn its attack on Ukraine,” says Käihkö.
He reminds us that as Western countries close their doors, Russia is increasingly dependent on the rest of the world: Turkey, India and China.
“This global pattern is terribly important, and that is probably what Putin is aiming for in this situation, in addition to domestic politics. Yes, he probably also wants to show that he is the good one in this situation”, Käihkö thinks.
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