At the end of the week, the Russians advanced into the city from the north. According to the mayor, the situation is “critical”.
Russian The armed forces' four-month-long siege of the industrial city of Avdijivka and non-stop firing seem to have significantly weakened Ukraine's defense during the turn of last week. This is reported by both Ukrainian and Russian sources. The mayor of the city Vitali Barabaš assessed the situation as “critical” for the news agency AFP.
“For several weeks, we have characterized the situation as very difficult, but manageable,” Barabaš said. “Now the situation is very difficult and in some places critical.”
Barabaš characterized the situation In an interview with HS in January saying that “all is not lost” and that “the lines are holding”.
Last over the weekend, the Ukrainian defense line, at least on the northern edge of Avdijivka, stopped holding. HS fact checker of John Helin according to the Russians quickly advanced a couple of kilometers and are currently trying to cross the railway south of the Avdijivka coke plant.
The plant used to be Ukraine's largest producer of coke and was in operation almost all the time, although Avdijivka remained a frontline town already during the war in eastern Ukraine in 2014. The distance from the city to the airport destroyed in the fighting in Donetsk in 2014 is only a few kilometers. At that time, the field remained in the hands of the Russians.
Russian troops have also advanced from the south towards the city center. The defenders of the city have been left with an area less than three kilometers wide, along which the troops could withdraw from the city if necessary. The troops attacking from the north of Russia are now only a kilometer away from Ukraine's only supply road leading to the west.
Temperature It was around plus two degrees in the Donetsk region on Tuesday evening, and the daytime temperature was predicted to rise to a maximum of ten degrees this week. The watery fields will hardly support the equipment if Ukraine has to leave Avdijivka.
“I think the situation in Avdijivka has reached a point where Ukraine should consider withdrawing – especially if attempts to push the attacker back in the northern part of the city fail,” says Helin.
Russia has been trying to capture Avdijivka since the beginning of the ongoing full-scale offensive. At the beginning of last October, Russia started the siege attempt and constant bombardment with artillery and flying bombs.
Russian the losses during the four months have been considerable. According to Ukraine's estimate, 30,000 Russian soldiers would have fallen in Avdijivka. Mayor Barabaš told HS in January that Ukraine's losses would be about a tenth of this.
Russia has lost at least ten times as much equipment in the battle for the city as compared to Ukraine's losses, according to the recorder of proven equipment losses Oryx statistics.
According to these statistics, by January 19, Russia would have lost 169 tanks and 293 armored vehicles in the Battle of Avdijivka. The actual losses are higher.
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