Abroad|The Russian attack
So far, the use of air guns in the war in Ukraine has been relatively low. According to the expert, Russia is now focused on destroying infrastructure with missile strikes.
1.3. 21:36 | Updated 1.3. 21:49
Russia continued its invasion of Ukraine for six days on Tuesday, with no end to the operation and no solution. The attacker has advanced with the ground forces towards Kiev but has not succeeded in bringing into the capital special forces that would have sought to overthrow the Ukrainian regime.
Russia seems to have caused the most damage with missile and rocket attacks. The Air Force, on the other hand, has been used relatively little, especially to transport troops by helicopter and transport aircraft.
The Russian Air Force carried out large-scale bombing of Grozny during the Second Chechen War of 1999-2000 and later of the Syrian Homs and Aleppo in 2014 and 2016.
Nothing like this has been seen in Ukraine so far. The situation has already led some observers to wait for a “second wave” of Russian invasion, with bombings wreaking havoc.
Lieutenant colonel Inka Niskanen The National Defense College points out that data on the events of the war in Ukraine are incomplete.
“However, I do not think that large-scale air operations or at least large-scale air-to-ground attacks have taken place, their traces would remain visible,” says Niskanen.
According to Niskanen, Russia may have failed to carry out large-scale bombing, for example, because it is trying to avoid its own losses.
“Russia announced on Thursday, the first day of the attack, that it had paralyzed Ukraine’s air defense,” Niskanen says.
“This is not the case.”
Second the possibility is that Russia will avoid large-scale bombing, as this would result in an increase in the number of civilian casualties and a dangerous decline in support for the war on the domestic front as well.
The war has been sold to the people on television as a reprimand to the “Kiev Nazis,” and the destruction of the settlement centers fits the story badly. Nevertheless, missile strikes have been aimed at residential quarters, at least in Kharkov and Kiev.
“Russia has tried, at least to some extent, to avoid the use of fire against civilian targets,” says Niskanen.
“Instead, it seems that far-reaching fire has been used against infrastructure that is critical to society.”
In other words, Russia would seek to destroy, for example, the distribution of electricity and heat and cripple resistance in this way. This could mean that Russia is preparing for a longer-than-expected war.
Russian researcher Andrei Kortunov said on Saturday To The New York Times The Russian administration has estimated that the Ukrainian military operation will last two weeks. Depending on Russia’s goals, this may still be possible, according to Inka Niskanen. Whether this would require large-scale airstrikes is not known.
“Yes, Russia still has various opportunities to take its operation forward,” says Niskanen.
British researcher Justin Bronk in turn, evaluated by a research institute Rusin in an article published on the website that there are also military reasons for Russia’s cautious use of air weapons.
First, Bronk estimates that the Russian Air Force does not have very many missiles available for so-called precision bombing. In the Syrian war, the Russian Air Force has used them mainly in the Su-34 bombers and sparingly in them as well. On the other hand, it would have been desirable to avoid summary bombings, as they have no military gain but political harm.
Second, Russia may fear fire from its own air defense, according to Bronk, due to weak coordination between the air force and air defense. The third factor Bronk raises is the low flight hours of Russian pilots, which he believes the Air Force fears unnecessary losses in the air war.
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