Russian attack | Researcher: Russia is counting on the West to get tired of the war, the regions of Ukraine will be annexed to Russia in a couple of weeks

The “voting result” of the occupied territories has been decided in advance. Putin is expected to make an announcement on the matter to the parliament as early as Friday.

Russian the so-called “referendums” organized in the conquered regions of Ukraine ended on Tuesday and there is no ambiguity about the results. After the play, Russia will annex these areas.

The regions of Donetsk and Luhansk declared themselves independent in 2014 and Russia recognized them in February. From the residents of these areas was asked now, do they support “the annexation of the People’s Republics to Russia with the rights of a federal subject?”

In the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia conquered in February–March, the question was slightly longer: “Do you support separation of the region from Ukraine, formation of the region as an independent state and its annexation to Russia with the rights of a federal subject?”

In addition to the four eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, the opportunity to vote has also been offered in Crimea and Russia.

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In the processes hardly any time is wasted because the result of the “votes” is predetermined. President Vladimir Putin is expected to give an announcement on the matter to the parliament as early as next Friday.

After the referendum held in Crimea on March 16, 2014, it took five days for the upper house of the Russian parliament to ratify the “agreement” on the annexation of the region to Russia.

Program Director Arkady Mošes The Foreign Policy Institute estimates that the regions have been annexed to Russia in a couple of weeks. According to him, there are three goals: to ensure the support of the home audience, to send a message to the West that Russia is a serious and proactive party, and to mobilize the population of the occupied territories to the front.

“This also applies to men who moved from the regions to Russia,” Mošes points out.

“It may be that the majority of Russians do not believe in the authenticity of the referendum,” he says. “But have they been asked to believe?”

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Russia will present the future battles for these four Ukrainian provinces as regional self-defense. Many expect this to lead to a declaration of war on Ukraine – it has yet to be done, despite the “partial” movement proposal.

“I don’t believe in a declaration of war, because it would also mean declaring a state of war for Russia,” says Mošes. “That would have far-reaching consequences for the situation of the entire country.”

“The purpose can be a real movement, with the help of which new troops could really be brought to the front within 3-6 months. So the solution would move to spring. And in any case, it will at least move to December.”

I drive winning might be important for Russia, especially if the Kremlin believes that Western support for Ukraine could wane as the war drags on.

“Influencing the West is important here,” says Mošes.

“If you look at Europe from the Kremlin, what do you see? Germany refuses to give tanks to Ukraine, in Italy the far right wins the elections… And the midterm elections in the United States may also matter if the Republicans achieve a significant victory.”

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PUTIN announced a “partial” motion proposal on the tape in his speech a week ago. Putin assured that Russia will do everything possible to defend the annexed territories, and it is not about “bluffing”.

The statement was considered to refer to the use of nuclear weapons.

“That possibility should not be ruled out, especially if Russia is losing the battle,” says Mošes.

“But the threshold is high. When it was already so difficult to decide on mobilization, the use of nuclear weapons does not seem likely.”

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