Russian attack | Ilmari Käihkö: The expansion of the war cannot be completely ruled out

of the United States president Joe Biden opened Pandora’s box last week when he gave Ukraine permission to use US weapons in attacks on Russian territory near the city of Kharkiv.

The online newspaper Politico reported on Biden’s decision on Thursday. President of Ukraine to Volodymyr Zelensky spokesman Serhiy Nykyvorov confirmed For The Kyiv Independent on Friday, that the permission to use weapons has been obtained.

Germany quickly followed the US example. Chancellor By Olaf Scholz spokesman Steffen Hebestreit told the news agency Reuters on Friday that Ukraine “has the right to defend itself based on international law”, so it can use German weapons to attack the Russian side “near the Kharkiv region”.

Zelenskyi visited Stockholm on Friday, where he met the Nordic leaders. Finland and Denmark have already signed an agreement on long-term support for Ukraine, now Sweden, Iceland and Norway did it.

The Nordic countries seemed to immediately come to a common line with the United States and Germany in their arms policy. Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview with the Finnish media in Stockholm that he does not see any risks from the use of Finnish weapons on the Russian side.

“It is Ukraine’s responsibility to decide how the weapons are used,” Stubb said. It is known that Finland has not supplied Ukraine with very long-range weaponry.

Russian the comments followed a pattern that has been repeated for the past two years.

President Vladimir Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskovex-president Dmitry Medvedev and a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova quickly announced that it is no longer NATO countries’ aid to Ukraine, but NATO’s direct participation in the war. As usual, Medvedev threatened with tactical nuclear weapons.

“Up until now, it has progressed in such a way that one country has decided to do something and the others have followed,” says Docent of Military Sciences, Visiting Researcher at the Alexander Institute of the University of Helsinki Ilmari Käihkö. “In a way, Russia has been calmed down by progressing little by little, and maybe that’s why there hasn’t been any major escalation.”

However, according to Käihkö, the expansion of the war is not impossible.

“Russia has not attacked NATO and has not used nuclear weapons,” Käihkö points out. “But if escalation is feared in Washington and Brussels, it cannot be completely ruled out. They probably know more about it than we do.”

“Ukrainians have complained that they had to fight with one hand behind their back because of the caution of the West, and that’s absolutely true,” Käihkö continues. “The situation is bleak for Ukraine. They don’t have enough troops, enough ammunition and not enough anti-aircraft.”

United States refused for a long time to supply Ukraine with ammunition with a range of more than 150 kilometers. In April, it became clear that Biden had quietly approved the delivery of Atacms missiles with a range of 300 kilometers to Ukraine already in February.

Ukraine has used them in attacks on the Crimean peninsula and apparently also on the Luhansk region in occupied eastern Ukraine.

On Friday, it was still unclear whether Ukraine could use Atacms missiles to defend Kharkiv by firing them at targets located in Russia. A US research institute ISW claimed Thursday that Biden’s authorization would not apply to Atacms missiles.

It was also unclear what the phrase “near the Kharkiv area” means. Russia launched a massive offensive in the Kharkiv region on May 10. Ukrainian data according to that, Russia would have concentrated a total of 30,000 soldiers on this front at that time.

The attackers initially advanced a few kilometers to the Ukrainian side, northeast and east of Kharkiv, since then the attack has stopped.

Frontline situation the next Ukrainian Deep State – website, there are soldiers from at least five regiments or brigades behind the front in the northeast of Kharkiv. Among others, the 138th motorized rifle brigade from the southeast of Vyborg and the “African Corps” units are included. These are former Wagner fighters.

Now Russia may well have to move its troops behind the border to better protection. Ukraine may also attack Russian fire stations, warehouses and fuel tanks with Western weapons.

It is thirty kilometers from the northeastern part of Kharkov, Saltyvka suburb, to the border, the front is ten kilometers closer. In principle, Ukraine could attack the Russian side with its own artillery, without asking permission from others.

“Ukraine does not dare to bring even its own artillery to the front line, because it is extremely dangerous,” says Käihkö. “They would be good targets for Russia, whose air force can operate far along the Ukrainian side of the front because Ukraine’s anti-aircraft capability has weakened.”

Russian The Kharkiv attack has been seen in most of the comments as an attempt to tie up the Ukrainian forces so that they would not be able to resist, let alone make their own breakthrough in the southernmost front blocks. On the other hand, Putin already declared in March that a “hundred kilometer buffer zone” should be established on Ukrainian soil in the direction of Kharkiv.

“At the same time, Russia has tried to break through in several other front blocks,” Käihkö points out. “That raises the question of whether the strategy has been thought through to the end.”

“The only logical basis for such a war of attrition is that Russia believes that Ukraine’s resources and Western support will run out sooner than Russia’s resources run out. This is such a fundamentally stupid strategy, but if it ends up working, it might turn out to be a good strategy.”

Adjustment 31.5. at 10:43 p.m.: Norway was not previously mentioned in the story as a signatory to the Ukraine support agreement. On Friday, Norway signed an agreement on long-term support for Ukraine.