Russian attack “If Russia wants Belarus to join the war, Putin tells Lukashenko to launch an attack, the point” – Why is Russia not seeking help from its neighbor?

Ukraine authorities claimed on Friday that Russia staged an air strike on Belarusian border villages.

According to the Ukrainian Defense Forces, Russian planes would have struck Belarusians from Ukrainian airspace. According to Ukraine, this would provide an excuse for Belarus to join the war.

Ukraine’s allegation of attacks has not yet been confirmed.

Ukrainian authorities stressed that Ukraine has never planned to attack Belarus and does not intend to do so. On the contrary, Ukraine says it is refraining from exacerbating the situation, even though Russia has attacked Ukraine with both ground troops and planes via Belarus and fired missiles at Ukraine.

“We also understand that the Belarussian government has done everything possible to avoid joining the war,” Ukraine’s Deputy Interior Minister Jevheni Jenin said on Ukrainian television on Friday, according to news agency Reuters.

Saturday Chief of General Staff of Belarus Viktor Gulevich said Belarus had no plans to join Russia in launching a large-scale offensive war in Ukraine, Reuters news agency reported.

At the same time, Gulevich announced the sending of five battalions of combat units to the Ukrainian border. According to him, they will only replace the combat units already there. Gulevich specifically stressed that troop movements were “in no way connected” with any plan to join the war. However, Gulevich did not use the word war, but the Russian regime’s circular expression “military special operation.”

So both the Ukrainian and Belarusian authorities now seem to be treating each other with tact, the most silk gloves. A few days after the start of the war Ukraine reported that Belarusian troops had been seen fighting on Ukrainian soil, but the finding was questioned and since then, Belarusian combat units fighting with Russian troops have reportedly not been seen once.

Although Russia would have staged an attack on Belarusian border villages, it wouldn’t matter much for Belarus to join the war, says a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Ryhor Nizhnikau.

“Russia does not need a staged attack. If it wants Belarus to join the war, Putin says To Lukashenkoto start an attack, point. ”

It would be difficult to say anything certain about a possible staging, even if it could be verified independently. What would have been its purpose? We must not know that, Nizhnikau says.

“It may be that after the staged attack, Lukashenko can say that Ukraine is threatening the security of Belarus. That’s how he would play his part in Putin’s plot. “

Why Belarus then has not attacked Ukraine, although has allowed Russia to use its soil in the attack?

Perhaps the main reason is that Moscow’s decision-makers don’t really need a Belarusian army, Nizhnikau says.

A research officer at the National Defense College is on the same lines Antti Pihlajamaa:

“Belarus’s armed forces are not very large, the total strength is probably about 50,000. There are a few brigades in the armed forces, and hardly all of them could be emptied in the direction of Ukraine, even if Belarus joins or is forced to join the war.”

A few dozen fighter jets or tanks would hardly bring any “great added value” to the Russian invasion. According to Pihlajamaa, its problem does not seem to be a lack of equipment, but rather the coordination of the use of air weapons with the activities of the ground forces.

“Pouring over the mass did not necessarily solve the problems of leadership and coordination.”

In other words, there would be no major turnaround in military power, even if Belarus joined, Pihlajamaa says.

Second the reason for the absence of Belarusian troops from Ukraine, according to Nizhnikau, is that joining the war would destabilize Belarus internally, could even overthrow the entire Lukashenko dictatorship.

“Belarusian society does not support war, and its army does not support war. The military thinks Russia’s attack is at least a big mistake, if not a crime. The consequences of joining the war could be quite radical. ”

One example of the mood of Belarusian soldiers is the lieutenant colonel evp distributed by the Belarusian opposition. Valery Sakhašikin a video in which he urges soldiers to disobey illegal commands. Sometimes it takes the most courage to say “no,” Sahasthik says in the video.

According to Nizhnikau, according to some opinion polls, only three percent of Belarusian city dwellers would support the involvement of Belarusian troops in the war of aggression in Russia.

“This tells us how big a mistake it would be to go to war, and it gives Lukashenko influence. I believe that Lukashenko has told Putin directly that the people of Belarus do not support the war. “

If Belarusian troops went to war, the Putin regime could quickly play a full part in defeating the uprising in Belarus while a huge number of troops are tied up in Ukraine.

Provided However, Belarusian troops would eventually join the war, according to Pihlajamaa, most likely to be given “one of the arrows of attack that Russian troops are currently carrying forward, some limited mission that could free some Russian troops for other missions”.

The fighting will of Russian troops has generally been assessed as weak. It is likely that the will of the Belarusian forces would be even weaker, say both Pihlajamaa and Nizhnikau.

“If we went to war, some of the troops would probably try to sabotage the operation or surrender. And if the army refused to follow Lukashenko’s orders, it could immediately lead to a popular uprising, ”Nizhnikau says.

There have been reports from the Belarussian army that soldiers are deliberately failing to fulfill their obligations, are on sick leave, and are not renewing their expiring contracts. The opposition that has moved abroad has also talked about outright differences and cuts abroad, but Nizhnikau does not believe in such radical steps. If the soldiers had significantly resigned and left the country, some of them would have already spoken to the media.

Nizhnikau also recalls that the Belarusian army is based on military service. Only about 20,000 soldiers are more or less ready to fight.

“The rest of the soldiers are teenagers or young adults who may have had almost no shooting instruction in their training.”

If such soldiers were sent to Ukraine, where its professional soldiers, reservists and volunteers have shown great perseverance and skill in a couple of weeks, the benefits of an attack on Russia would be more or less zero, Nizhnikau says.

Russia has already lost strategically, according to Nizhnikau, and Lukashenko wants to stay away from bigger struggles.

“Most likely, Lukashenko will try to see who wins and move on to it. If it looks like Putin could achieve some kind of tactical victory, taking Putin’s side could bring Lukashenko benefits. Then Belarus could send troops to Ukraine, for example, as so-called ‘peacekeepers’. “

This is most likely, according to Nizhnikau. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that Lukashenko’s mindset is in line with Putin’s mind: revenge and confrontation with the West at all costs.