Russian attack Expert from the Swedish National Defense College: Putin’s reasons for the attack were insane, and that is bad news for Finland

Stockholm

Russian attack on Ukraine has a huge impact on all countries sharing a border with Russia, says docent at the Swedish National Defense College Tomas Ries.

According to Ries, the president of Russia Vladimir Putin has now shown that he has no respect for European peace and security standards. It’s not just about Ukraine, it’s about peace in Europe as a whole, Ries says.

The way Putin justified attack on Ukraine was, according to Ries, so insane and imaginative that anything can be expected of Putin’s Russia in the future. Ries emphasizes that this is not Russia, but Putin’s Russia.

“We knew he was dangerous, but now we see how dangerous he really is. He is ready to attack a neighboring country on a large scale. He’s ready for a bigger war, ”Ries says.

From the point of view of Finland and the Baltic countries, Putin’s activities are very worrying.

“If he is ready to use such arguments against Ukraine, anything can happen to Finland and the Baltics.”

Thomas Ries has a long career as a researcher in Nordic security policy. Born in the United States, Ries has worked at the Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute during the Cold War, worked as a specialist researcher at the Finnish National Defense College and headed the Swedish Foreign Policy Institute.

Ries, who worked at the Finnish National Defense University from 1997 to 2004, was the first foreign citizen to work for the school.

In 1988, he published the book Cold Willwhich dealt with Finnish defense policy from 1918 until the end of the Cold War.

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“It is important that in Finland, the state leadership and the defense forces never stopped taking Russia seriously.”

Now we are probably on the eve of a new Cold War, Ries estimates. With the Russian invasion, Western countries begin to equip themselves. Military tensions are beginning to rise.

“More countries outside Russia are starting to take defense more seriously. The West is beginning to increase its defensive capabilities. Poland, for example, has just traded 250 tanks with the United States, ”says Ries.

The increase in tensions is unfortunate, for example, for Finland, which shares 1,300 kilometers of border with Russia. But fortunately, Finland is well prepared, Ries says.

“Finland is one of the best prepared countries, there is no doubt about that. Finland is a country that should be seen as Russia’s greatest expert. It is important that in Finland, the state leadership and the defense forces never stopped taking Russia seriously. Even though the Soviet Union collapsed, there was no relaxation, ”Ries describes.

Finland in contrast, Ries considers Sweden to have reduced its defenses after the Cold War in the 1990s and abolished conscription. When Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, Sweden began rebuilding an army it had once disbanded.

Read more: Sweden drove down its army, startled and looked at Finland – Graphs show the power of joint Finnish-Swedish armed forces

Reconstruction of the Defense Forces is underway, but the Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson stressed on Thursday that the Swedish armed forces are now in significantly better condition than in 2014.

Docent Ries does not take a good look at the Swedish government’s response to the current crisis.

“In Finland, almost the entire political elite takes Russia seriously. It’s missing here. ”

Ries ponders for a moment whether to say the following out loud, but then goes on to say he considers Prime Minister Andersson inexperienced in security matters.

“Andersson is generally not interested in security issues. He was a skilled finance minister, but he does not know these things. Over time, however, he will learn. ”

Ries is well-known as a supporter of Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership, and he hopes that there will be a genuine discussion about NATO in Sweden as well. In Finland, he is already seeing signs of that.

The Swedish Social Democratic government reiterated its negative position on NATO last Thursday at a press conference on Sweden’s response to the crisis in Ukraine.

“This current government is not going to make a NATO decision. We have to wait until the fall when the election comes, ”Ries says.

From the current one there is no easy way out of the crisis, Ries says.

The most positive outcome would be if Putin took only certain parts of Ukraine: the eastern part and the land connection to Crimea. Now, however, it seems that Putin’s goals are much broader. The U.S. administration estimates that Putin’s plans will even extend beyond Ukraine.

“If Russian troops take over Kiev, Ukraine will no longer be able to function as a state. However, taking Kiev is not easy, ”Ries said.

The fighting ability of the Ukrainians may also come as a surprise to Putin.

“Ukraine’s will to fight and morale is really high. That is a very important factor. We already saw it in the Finnish Winter War. If the soldiers have a strong will and are skilled, they will be able to fight fiercely. ”

According to Ries, one of Putin’s goals is to create a zone around Russia’s borders within which countries should not decide their own security policy. That was also the case with Putin’s demands to the United States and NATO in December.

“Of course, we have to consider whether this is the same for Putin as it was a few years ago: an ice-cold, calculating and skillful power politician – or whether he’s tied up.”

The key tool for Putin is intimidation, Ries says, referring to Putin declaration of war to one point.

In it, Putin says:

“Anyone who tries to stop us, let alone threaten our country, our people, knows that Russia’s response will be swift and will lead you to consequences you have never faced before in your history. We are ready for any developments. All the necessary decisions have been made. I hope to be heard. ”

Read more: “In the end, it’s about life and death” – HS publishes Vladimir Putin’s declaration of war word for word

Ries interprets Putin in his speech as referring to nuclear weapons. The docent considers it possible that in the coming years Putin will have more direct contact with NATO and the EU by threatening them with nuclear weapons.

“It’s perhaps far-fetched, but not impossible. At present, the West and NATO are not ready for the threat of nuclear weapons. The threat posed by nuclear weapons could collapse NATO. Capabilities, intimidation and civil defense must be built against that threat. “

With this wound, however, Putin’s attention has been drawn to Ukraine. According to Ries, there is no acute threat to the North. But if Putin achieves his goals in Ukraine, in a couple of years the Russian leader’s gaze may be on the Baltics.