“Russia and Ukraine can negotiate, so that both present themselves as winners with the end of the war,” he tells EL TIEMPO Zvi Magen, former Israeli ambassador to Moscow and later to Kiev.
Much water has flowed under the bridge since Magen finished his four years as Israel’s ambassador to Ukraine (1993-1997) and his two years as Israel’s ambassador to Russia (1998-1999). In both countries he was when the Soviet Union no longer existed, which now seems to want to revive Vladimir Putin, architect of the worst conflict that Europe has experienced since World War II after the invasion of his neighbor: Ukraine.
Magen is today the main analyst on Russia at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel and a world leader. In this interview with EL TIEMPO, the diplomat talks about what exactly is Putin looking for from Ukraine, what solutions are there for the conflict and where can the, for now, cold negotiations between Kiev and Moscow lead?
-What ingredients stand out for us to reach the current situation between Russia and Ukraine?
Putin, from his point of view, has good reason to try to change the situation that has prevailed since the dismemberment of the Soviet Union. The United States became the policeman and king of the world and considered that Russia had to be kept weak because it had already caused enough problems. Accepting into NATO all those countries that were previously members of the Warsaw Pact was one way of doing it. Also the Baltic countries –Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia–. In fact, nine former Soviet republics became part of NATO. Furthermore, they started revolutions that Russia is sure were the product of subversive actions by the West. In Putin’s perception, everything was orchestrated by the West.
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-In Putin’s mind, is it imperative to stop all this?
Putin began to think how to change that situation. At a certain moment, he decided that he has to apply a policy of force. In 2004, Ukraine wanted to join the West and Russia poisoned its president and put someone of its own. The issue is not new. Georgia, in 2008, wanted to join NATO and was militarily invaded by Russia. In 2014, Ukraine tried again. Russia had lost Ukraine, but seized the Crimean peninsula and took control in what they call a “hybrid” way. Russia decided that it will not let anyone undermine the Russian zone of influence. In addition, he also wants to be a world power again.
-It’s a question of power and status…
Russia wants, like everyone else, to control the world, convinced that otherwise they will be swallowed up. The problem is that he took Ukraine hostage, put a knife to its neck and headed to the West.: now we change the current world order, we return to the previous one. He made demands, placed the army on the border with Ukraine, the West did not answer him because it considered that it controlled the situation and therefore had no reason to make concessions to Putin, and he decided to deal with Ukraine and then return to the West with his demands to receive at least part of these. For that he first needs to finish off the Ukrainians. It is a dementia. And that’s where the war began.
-What exactly do you want from Ukraine?
Here the objective is political, not an interest in a new territorial conquest. Return Ukraine to Russian influence and change the uncooperative Ukrainian regime. It doesn’t matter if it’s done by killing (Volodymir) Zelensky or not. Conquering Ukraine is complicated and expensive and can cause problems at home, so he wanted to do something short and fast, take control of the government centers, kill Zelensky if necessary and from there impose a new regime.
-It’s not short anymore, it didn’t make it…
Of course. The plan to achieve this in a few days has failed. The objective was to change the regime without conquering the territory, but they have not achieved it. On the third day they already understood that they failed, that the Ukrainian army will fight with everything it has, despite having suffered many hard blows.
-Within Putin, did the perception of Biden weigh as a weak president and of the West in general?
There are those who say that this must have been a central element. I count myself among those who consider that it was not the main thing. At first the Americans were very firm with him, they did not give what he asked for. I believe that the issue is not that Putin attacked because he thought that Biden would respond softly, but because he estimated that he would achieve his goals.
(You may be interested: Zelensky reappeared in his office: “I’m not afraid of anyone”)
-What value do negotiations have?
I see it as a white flag, although in the background Putin remains immovable. The truth is that if he manages to reach some understanding with Zelensky, the Russian president can say that he managed to prevent Ukraine from being part of the West, that he managed to make it neutral and return home victorious.
-But not only he can claim it…
Of course. Also the Ukrainians could say that they did not give up, that they negotiated hard and that they remained a strong and independent country, even though they are neutral. Russia and Ukraine can negotiate, so that both present themselves as winners. But as long as the Russians keep attacking, both sides can in principle claim to have won, ending the war.
– Is it realistic to think that Ukraine declares itself neutral and agrees to demilitarize itself, as Putin demands?
Yes, although in a limited way. They will be able to find an intermediate formula, which never has NATO troops in its territory, which does not have certain heavy weapons. Sure, Putin will try to achieve as much as possible, but they can reach a middle ground.
Will Zelensky accept something like that?
He knows well how the game can take place. If he accepts neutrality, demilitarization won’t matter anymore. Of course it can still happen that they kill him before.
– Do you think that the Ukrainian president can present accepting to be a neutral country as a victory after having applied to join the European Union (EU)?
Yes, because if he accepts that, he may be able to stop the war without Russia having conquered Ukraine and without the regime crumbling. He can say: ‘I won, I kicked out the Russians and I’m staying’. Regarding its annexation to the EU, it is one of the central questions, because we will not know to what extent joining the European Union would upset the Russians or not. They can say, for example, not to do it in the course of the next year.
(Also: Vladimir Putin published the list of ‘hostile’ countries for Russia)
– Is there a difference between joining the EU and NATO?
Of course, the European Union is an economic association, and NATO, a military one. Hence Putin’s more radical stance on NATO. Putin worries about the future of Russia in terms of geopolitical control, he does not see it as a weak country. He wants to restore its status as a power and NATO may have been wrong in not realizing how far he was willing to go.
-Can we say that the tragedy in Ukraine is due to its geographical location, a kind of security strip between Russia and the West?
Exactly, no doubt. In addition, it is a very important country, the largest in Europe, gigantic. It has a high level population, 44 million inhabitants. It is also very important from the point of view of its agricultural production, which is exported all over the world. It is industrialized. When it was part of the Soviet Union, all heavy industries were on its territory. Putin does not want to give up that, in addition to his geopolitical weight.
– Do you think that Putin believes that he cannot give in to Ukraine because that could be the beginning of the end of his regime?
For Putin, all this is a very negative process. Moldova, Ukraine, the Balts… they all escape to the West. In the Caucasus there is a war, Turkey is also involved and Putin feels that Russia has to take care of everyone. This is the way to do it from his eyes.
-Does it make sense to think about Putin’s nuclear threat?
If he threatens nuclear weapons, that is equivalent to pointing a gun at his own head. He doesn’t mean it. But it does mean that he is ready for any war if they ignore him. He does not intend to solve the Ukraine issue with atomic weapons, it is just a way of putting pressure.
(You can read: Russia announces local truces while humanitarian tragedy grows)
-What would you say the Russian people feel and think?
This is the kind of stuff that no one really knows the truth about. Russia activated control and censorship within its territory. We know that there are large demonstrations against the invasion. It seems that there are discrepancies also in the environment closest to the government and discussions within the Kremlin itself. There is undoubtedly internal pressure on Putin about continuing the war.
If he threatens nuclear weapons, that is equivalent to pointing a gun at his own head. he doesn’t mean it
– Is the letter from the generals opposed to the war authentic?
Completely. They tried to show it as an invention, but it is not. It was the first such appearance, then there were more.
– Do you think that a situation can arise in which Putin is totally defeated?
No I dont think so. But, on the other hand, that he has asked for negotiations is a way of showing weakness. Instead of getting the results she wanted, she asked to speak. But of course he will never recognize it and continues to attack. Everything will present it as an achievement. That he was wrong is clear as the sun. But for him to be totally defeated is another story. For now, fight. So I don’t know if this will end up knocking him down, but it sure won’t add any health to him. Can’t know exactly. It is a war.
-I know that, as an investigator, you do not pass judgment, but analyze. Still, I ask you: do you think this is a war between good and evil?
(Sigh). It is a complex issue. I count myself among those who do not consider resorting to war and using force to impose their will on another country. I don’t support the Russians. But, analyzing the situation politically, I also understand your concerns. That’s why I’m not saying they’re bad at all. But less good than the other side, that’s for sure.
JANA BERIS – FOR TIME
JERUSALEM
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