War between Russia and Ukraine, the erosion of purchasing power, with equal wages, is at its highest since 1991
It seems a April Fool but unfortunately it is not: the increase in prices for Italians it could reach 7%. Blame the exponential increase of cost of energy – down for Arera only from next quarter thanks to the temporary measures implemented by the government. Now the point is simple: what to do with your savings?
The erosion of purchasing powerat the same salaries, it is at the most since 1991. A period, that, in which the interest rate of the multi-year treasury bill (commonly known as BTP) with a maturity of 10 years made the 13.1%. The saver, therefore, knew that his current account was losing purchasing power, but at the same time the guaranteed rates were decidedly competitive.
Today, however, there is an additional problem: that is, the bond, with i rates so lowcertainly does not guarantee significant returns. So much so that the same 10-year BTP today guarantees a return of 2.12%, higher than the post-Covid “flat calm” moments, but certainly not so significant as to represent a great opportunity.
What to do? On the one hand you can think of invest in brick. However, it remains a safe haven, especially now that the market has restarted. So: those who decide to buy a house and then put it into income can count on an average return of 7.8%. Of course, a lot depends on the city, the area, the type of property. But if you want to make an average, these are the returns.
Then there is the very rich chapter dedicated to equities, which we have talked about several times on Affari. In this case it becomes difficult to understand how to analyze the situation after two dramatic events such as the pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine. We can therefore try to use longer times as parameters, using the “black swans” as mere accidents on the road to equities.
As of April 2017, the Ftse Eb it was worth about 20,000 points, today we are at more than 25,000, with a theoretical gain of about 25%. But it is a bill really done with the hatchet: because in these five years there are titles like Ferrari, Stmicroelectronics, Poste Italiane, Terna and Campari they earned makes a minimum of 101% up to a maximum of 196%. On the other hand, however, there are actions like those of Saipem who have sold 72% of their value or those of Tim which have lost more than 58%.
So all that remains is to imagine a extremely differentiated portfolio, in which weights and counterweights are developed in order to guarantee good returns despite the black swan. Also because there are new forms of investment, such as Pir, which enjoy favorable taxation and good dynamism, as well as having the great merit of having expanded the potential audience of investors.
Notwithstanding, finally, that two parameters have not yet been “discounted” by the markets. The first is that of the actual effect of the war in Ukraine on the economy: because the repercussions cannot be immediate, despite the fraudulent jump in the price of gasoline.
The second is a wake-up call that comes directly from the US, with two-year bond rates being higher than 10-year ones, as reported by Il Sole 24 Ore. What does it mean? That one could loom on the horizon new recession, the third in the last 10 years in Italy. Fasten your seat belts, in short.
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