With the exceptions of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, Latin America turned its back on Russia on the invasion of Ukrainebut Moscow can keep an ace up its sleeve and surprise with a “symbolic” provocation in the region to challenge United States.
Lately, even when the drums of war were already being heard in Ukraine,
Russia has been making a frantic diplomatic deployment in Latin Americazone of influence of the United States, in search of allies.
Last week, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, received his counterpart Brazilian, Jair Bolsonaroin Moscow, where he had previously met with the Argentina, Alberto Fernandez, who even offered that his country be a “gateway to Latin America.”
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But as soon as the tanks rolled into Ukraine on Thursday, both rejected the use of armed force, as did most countries in the region.
Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank, is not surprised. “The trade relationship with Russia is very limited and the risk of aligning with it is not worth the benefit,” he told AFP.
Putin has three allies in the region -Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua- who have positioned themselves on his side more than anything “for ideological and transactional interests,” he points out. Christopher Sabatini, researcher at the Chatham House think tank.
On the same day that the invasion of Ukraine began, an official Russian delegation, led by the president of the Lower House of Parliament, Viacheslav Volodin, arrived in Nicaragua to meet with the President Daniel Ortegawho a week earlier had discussed economic and military issues with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov.
‘Barking dog, little biter’
Russia, which a month ago threatened a military deployment in Cuba and Venezuelaseeks to strengthen “his friendships to show that he is not isolated internationally and to complicate the strategic position of the United States by projecting a threat in the region,” he explains. Evan Ellis, professor of Latin American studies at the Institute for Strategic Studies at the US Army War College.
That he kremlin do “something symbolic is very likely” because he’s said it multiple times, Ellis says. But “a barking dog, little biter”, nevertheless clarifies the expert, who opts for “something improvised, with the purpose of projecting a threat, more than substantial or well planned”.
“Some type of military provocation or the signing of an agreement to show its capacity to project itself militarily in the region,” he explains.
The bloody military offensive in Ukraine imposed on Russia a battery of sanctions to inflict economic damage “both immediately and in the long term”, in the words of US President Joe Biden.
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With an economy under sanctions that are severely impacting its oil exports and financial system, “Russia probably won’t have the resources or logistical capacity to sustain a significant military presence” in the Americas for long, Ellis says.
China on the prowl
In recent years, Latin America has become more politically fragmented, which means that “relations not only with Russia, but also with Chinabe more diverse,” says Sabatini. And the new war “will put these new relationships to the test.”
The United States, whose relations with Russia and China are experiencing their lowest hours, is balancing to strengthen ties in the region and at the same time combat corruption in some countries, especially in Central America, from where waves of immigrants arrive fleeing misery and they seek a better future.
And the rise in wheat prices, which are hitting records never seen since 2008, and oil prices as a result of the war in Ukraine will be especially noticeable in these developing countries. Central America and the Caribbean.
“For them, the shortage is likely to mean a rise in critical import prices and the risk of rising popular discontent,” Sabatini warns.
(Also: Analysis of how this tension between Russia and Ukraine was reached)
Russia will depend more economically on China, which has long-term goals in Latin America, “such as replacing the United States as the main economic partner,” says Shifter.
In this war, Beijing “will maintain a fairly neutral position and will examine what its rivals are doing,” he adds.
“It will closely monitor the evolution of this crisis to take advantage of any weakness in the United States to expand its own influence in the region, which needs a lot of economic support.”
AFP
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