The Kremlin turns to prisoners, mercenaries, civilians and reserve veterans to replace the high number of casualties it suffers in the war
Not even the most powerful Army in the world can be immune to the loss of 37,500 soldiers in a war that has barely lasted more than four months. The Russian is already paying the blood loss in Ukraine, whether or not the figures released by kyiv and denied by Moscow are true. The only thing confirmed is that Vladimir Putin’s infantry did not star in the initial Blitzkrieg (lightning war) of the Nazis.
Its troops have been stagnant for a long time on the fronts of Donbas, in the east, and Odessa, in the south, something that forces them to base the offensive solely on bombardments with planes or missiles. But no conflagration is won without the soldiers putting their boots on enemy territory and for this the Kremlin needs new shipments of soldiers. This circumstance has forced the Ministry of Defense to resort to non-traditional recruitment methods.
If at first the invasion was carried out with young people who were doing military service, now, according to British intelligence, the shortage of replacements and abundant desertions force them to recruit prisoners who were serving sentences or veterans who have been retired for more than ten years and most of them are over 45 years old. In addition, the mercenaries of the Wagner group – until now only used in special high-risk missions – are increasingly relied on to replace the high number of fallen on the battlefield. Likewise, many of the professional soldiers stationed on Ukrainian soil have refused to renew their contracts.
The most effective solution for Russia would be to decree a general mobilization, but the Putin government fears that this will lead to a reduction in popular support for the invasion among citizens. There would be a risk that the Russians would end up associating the invasion of Ukraine with past military disasters such as those in Afghanistan or Chechnya.
Furthermore, it would take between three and six months to prepare the new fighters. Faced with these difficulties, according to experts in military strategy, a “stealth mobilization” has been chosen to allow the “special military operation” to continue.
All this accumulation of difficulties and miscalculations, according to British sources, has also led Moscow to forcibly recruit Ukrainians from the conquered territories, based on laws in force in the enclaves dominated by pro-Russian separatists since 2014.
tempting salaries
Moscow also ‘signs’ in Transnistria, the occupied territory of Moldova, where a base left over from Soviet times houses 2,500 soldiers and an arsenal of 40,000 tons of ammunition. In the region there are also some 15,000 reservists with ages around 50, but who seem to be tempted by important economic incentives that range between 2,000 and 5,000 euros monthly salary.
These ‘job offers’ are managed in many cases through the internet, where Russia also tries to attract combat engineers, paratroopers and experts in the use of grenade launchers, as ‘The New York Times’ assures.
The Kremlin has asked for help from its allies in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan or Armenia, which, however, prefer not to get involved in the war. Only Lukashenko’s Belarus has been aligned with Russia at all times and helps to continue feeding the invading forces and correct the “significant losses” that the Kremlin admits and that could reach a third of the troops who crossed the Ukrainian border on the 24th. February.
The lack of progress and the wear and tear of men means that the war is at a standstill and is in danger of dragging on over time as a low-intensity conflict in which, according to the Institute for the Study of War (IWS) it will force Moscow to conduct “offensive operations that make limited gains” and instead rack up “a great human cost.”
This would explain the latest movements seen on the battlefield, where a Russian withdrawal can be seen in southern Ukraine to concentrate on Donbas, a very restricted area with respect to Putin’s initial ambitions.
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