TRUE CRISIS IS AGAIN BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE, THE USA: “MOSCOW READY TO INVADE”
On the eastern front, the game is becoming more and more insidious. And more and more extensive. While they are going to outline partnerships that dance on the thin red line that separates them from becoming alliances. The United States claims that Russia can invade Ukraine. Again. A little more than seven years after what happened in Crimea, an event that drastically removed Moscow to the West. A new episode of this kind would probably mark the end of relations between Russia, Europe and the United States. Throwing Vladimir Putin into Xi Jinping’s arms after the very long flirtation of recent years. A migrant crisis which is in reality a political crisis, the one on the border between Belarus and Poland, and which also involves other actors. From the European Union to NATO, with the final appearance of Beijing.
RUSSIA REJECTS: “WE WILL NOT INVAD ANYONE, BUT …”
The Kremlin, for now, denies everything. “Nobody should worry about Russian troops being moved to their own national territory,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said, responding to the press asking if he was aware that the US has warned EU colleagues. on alleged possible plans for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. “This is not the first publication in this sense nor the first time that the United States has expressed concern about the movement of our armed forces in the territory of the Russian Federation”, Peskov recalled, “we have repeatedly stated in this regard that the movement of our armed forces around the national territory should not concern anyone “. However, some did not miss the fact that we are talking about Russian troops and “national territory”. When it is known that some areas administered by Kiev are claimed by Moscow.
“Russia does not represent a threat to anyone”, Peskov added, noting however that Moscow “if necessary, takes measures to guarantee national security when its opponents carry out provocative activities near its borders”. The reference is to NATO, ever closer to the Russian borders, with the thought, for example, of the naval deployment of the United States in the Black Sea and the increasingly frequent intelligence flights of American and Atlantic Alliance officials in the countries of the area, from Romania to Moldova.
BEHIND THE CRISIS, THE TENSION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND NATO, INCREASINGLY WIDER IN THE EAST
NATO itself spoke about the affair, saying it was “vigilant” and regularly monitoring “the movements of the Russian forces. It is important to guarantee transparency and avoid calculation errors”. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken set fire to the fuse, who warned the European Union of the possibility that Moscow could think of repeating the military operation set up already in 2014, when he massed troops at the border and then crossed the line. No precise evidence has yet been provided to support these indications, but above all the military movements at the border are cited, contextual to the so-called migrant crisis in Belarus.
THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINE TENSION EXPLODES TOGETHER WITH THE MIGRANT CRISIS OF BELARUS-POLAND AND THE RUSSIAN GAS EVENT
There have been similar incidents in recent months, with CIA director Bill Burns going to Moscow to speak with Putin. Cyclically, however, the tension rises, given the unresolved equilibrium not only and not so much between Russia and Ukraine but rather between Russia and NATO. The Kremlin for its part protests Ukraine’s alleged use of combat drones, in violation of a previous agreement on military activity in the Black Sea. “The information we have so far” regarding the presence of Russian military forces in the border with Ukraine “is quite worrying and has been the subject of discussions with transatlantic partners, such as the US and the UK, to see how the situation evolves. In light of the developments, we are ready to consider further steps needed to be taken together to the partners mentioned, “said Peter Stano, spokesman for the European Commission.
CHINA IMPLICITLY SUPPORTS MOSCOW
The main concern of the affair is that tensions will rise precisely during the more than delicate situation on the border between Belarus and Poland, as well as while the situation of Russian gas supplies is still far from resolved. A potentially explosive mixture to which is added the unprecedented interest of China. In the People’s Daily, an expression of the Chinese Communist Party, an article appeared in which it was told of the 1964 Gulf of Tonkin incident, taken as an example of the excuse used by the United States to start the war in Vietnam. A revisitation not justified by anniversaries or anniversaries, and so some analysts have put it in relation to what is happening in Ukraine. In short, an implicit support for the Russian moves. Who, on the other hand, had anticipated the favor by saying to support those of China on Taiwan last month. In his Sinocism, Bill Bishop comes to wonder what effect a potential simutaneous double invasion would have: Russian in Ukraine and Chinese in Taiwan. A coordinated action perhaps unpredictable and also difficult to imagine. But that could derail any American strategy.
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