Russia Mika Aaltola, Director of the Foreign Policy Institute: The threat of war must be taken into account in Europe

According to the director of the Foreign Policy Institute, agreeing over Finland’s head has a historically grim echo.

23.12. 16:52

Foreign policy director of the institute Mika Aaltola reads hard signs of a tightening climate in international politics.

“The threat of large-scale war in Europe must be taken into account. If visibility increases, Europe will be confused, ”he said, asking about the possible escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

According to him, the big change is that in ten years we have progressed from a world where the threat of war was negligible to a world where it is also a significant opportunity for the Baltic Sea and Finland.

Aaltola emphasizes that Russia is now using armed force in Ukraine proactively and not reactively, as in the occupation of Crimea in 2014.

“Is the sleep of the rose asleep here, is the awakening interrupted, is there too much focus on some hybrid scenarios, thinking that the war in the traditional form would have disappeared?”

Aaltola reminds that in international politics, polarity is changing with China’s rise. Historically, such changes rarely happen without war. He refers to the famous historian of antiquity Thukydides.

“If he read the signs of this time, he would probably be very pessimistic, especially for small states.”

Russia announced last week surprisingly, a list of requirements for new security guarantees for the United States and NATO. The list applies in one way or another to virtually the whole of Eastern Europe.

Accepting the demands would completely change the established principle after the Cold War that each country has the right to decide on its own security solution.

“It certainly came as a surprise that the list of claims also directly applies to Finland.”

What will follow if Russia attacks Ukraine?

“It would mean a hard search for a negotiating table, but then to start preparing for the conflict not to end there, but to escalate.”

And if the crisis spilled over to Belarus and Kaliningrad, the focus would be on the so-called Suwałki corridor between Lithuania and Poland. Then it would be in the Baltic Sea.

According to Aaltola, both roads, negotiations and the expansion of the war, could cause Finland’s position to become more difficult or disputed.

Aaltola says that many people in Finland have fallen into the “trap of Putin”, because the mere publication of the list of requirements, the declaration, has led to looking in the transom.

“Who closed the NATO door for us when it didn’t join in time? I think that’s a bad way to argue here. Should look ahead. Yes, there has always been an idea in stability policy that great power conflicts have not disappeared anywhere in the world, ”he says.

“We should not agree on Finnish affairs over Finland, it has a historically gloomy echo.”

Finland is not joining NATO, according to Aaltola. The post-Cold War status quo, the status quo, has been favorable to small countries anyway.

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The president of the Republic Sauli Niinistö announced in early December As for Finland’s relationship with NATO, it is important that NATO keeps the possibility of membership open.

According to Aaltola, it would have been startling to see similar information ten years ago.

“It would have said that something big has happened because one has to be put on. Now something big has happened that talks about the load-bearing capacity of the foundation pillars. ”

Aaltola says the Russians know that political shifts in relation to Finland may cause Finland to see the situation deteriorate so that Finland decides to join NATO. That would be a great loss of prestige for Russia.

He thinks this is the reason why Russia has not visibly linked its security demands to Finland.

“Yes, diplomats have a lot of work to do in this, so that there are no issues between Russia and NATO that concern non-NATO European countries. We should not agree on Finnish affairs over Finland, it has a historically gloomy echo. ”

“Russia feels a little clueless.”

Business delegation Eva announced At the end of October, a study on Finns’ attitudes towards Russia. According to it, the attitude towards Russia has become clearly more negative than before.

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According to the survey, almost 60 percent of Finns consider Russia a military threat.

“It’s a startling read. Russia’s actions have changed Finns’ relationship with Russia, ”says Aaltola.

Could the President of Russia Vladimir Putin trying to translate Finland again?

“It’s hard to see that it would work, but that’s what Russia wants a little bit now.”

Aaltola thinks that “an episode or a series of episodes that is also related to Finland is coming”.

In expert comments, something is expected to happen sooner or later.

In Finland There has been little public political debate about the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Aaltola thinks that the reason is that people do not want to worry about it, because there would be no point in being uneasy.

It has also been difficult for Finnish decision-makers to react because they do not know what is going on: is it an immediate threat or a tightening of the hanging rope in the long term?

“The reaction of the West has been, including in Finland, that the statements emphasize unity. We don’t want to show the weakness that Russia smells in the air after Kabul and Syria, ”says Aaltola.

“Russia feels a little clueless. Is it a sign of Russia’s intransigence when it comes up with nothing but a mess like this? It has a sneaker in it. Fortunately, I’m not at the Presidential Palace to think about it. ”

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