Michael Goya. Former French soldier and expert on the Ukrainian war
The historian, professor and military analyst believes that maintaining aid to Ukraine is the only way to achieve peace in the area
Michel Goya, born 60 years ago in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, is one of the leading French experts on the war in Ukraine. This former colonel of the Marine Corps, historian and professor at the War College, is considered one of the great analysts of the new battlefields of the 21st century. Descendant of the Gipuzkoan professional cyclist Luis Goya, he believes that the Russian invasion has entered a very uncertain phase, in which a total mobilization of his troops by Moscow could be disastrous for Putin. In his opinion, to achieve peace it is necessary to increase aid to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky.
–You stated a few weeks ago that a ‘private war’ was taking place in Ukraine. What did he mean by that sentence?
–It is an expression that began to be used in the French Army in 1953, at the end of the Indochina war. It describes a way of fighting in which, as happens in sea battles, incursions and slashes are multiplied. This is what the Ukrainians were doing through their deep attacks against the enemy. They reconquered the island of Serpents, reached sensitive points in Crimea, multiplied the actions of partisans and, above all, managed to carry out very precise bombardments with Western artillery systems on Russian logistics.
Q: What do you think will happen after Ukraine’s current success in the Kharkov counter-offensive?
-The Ukrainians have achieved, for the first time in this war, an advance of the front and the dislocation of the enemy position near the city of Kharkov. They have been able to exploit this victory deep as far as the Russian border in the north and in the Luhansk province in the east. We do not know at this time where this progress will stop, but it may lead to a general collapse of the enemy, although it will most likely run into a new Russian line of defense. If the Ukrainians are able to gather five or six brigades again to attack another weak point very quickly and they are successful, it will mean that they now have the initiative in operations. In the short term, Moscow’s only hope lies in rebuilding as strong a line of defense as possible. In the medium term, they will have to rethink the whole invasion of Ukraine.
– Can you think of a hypothetical victory for Ukraine?
–If the Ukrainian military superiority is confirmed, the prospect of a victory over Russia will come closer. However, it is unlikely that Moscow will not react and activate all its reserves to fight back. But it is difficult to know if such a reaction can be successful.
What direction could an escalation of the war take?
–A first form of escalation could be the unleashing of attacks against all Ukrainian cities, as is already the case with the bombing of electrical networks and the main centers of power. Their goal is to show that they are not helpless, to try to hamper kyiv’s war effort and, perhaps, to undermine the will of the citizens. One can also imagine that they will try again to kill Volodymyr Zelensky. But what everyone fears is the official declaration of war and the general mobilization of the nation’s forces, under the guise of an existential threat from NATO.
–It seems that Russia is affected by the ‘Afghanistan syndrome’ and does not want to mobilize all its troops so as not to face an internal crisis if the casualties of recruits multiply.
-We are, perhaps, facing the only war between states that has been launched without even being declared as such by the aggressor and without general mobilization of the nation. It is as if it were a distant operation abroad. In any case, it is a sign that this mobilization would be unpopular and likely to cause political unrest in Russia, especially if it is accompanied by defeats. In addition, it would be difficult to get it up and running because there was nothing planned on that option. It would open a political Pandora’s box with uncertain results.
strategic incompetence
-You have spoken of the problems of the Russian chain of command and wondered, before the defeat in Kharkov, if the generals of the invading Army were wrong or lied. What do you think is happening in Moscow?
-It is incomprehensible that the Russians did not see the meeting of a mass of 20,000 men, with hundreds of armored vehicles, a few kilometers from the front line. Because they have great means of intelligence, from satellites to deep reconnaissance commandos, through drones or simply their planes, which dominate the sky. The truth is that the assessment of the situation by the Russian command was completely wrong. And when you suffer an unexpected military disaster, there has always been incompetence somewhere.
Michel Goya, former French soldier and expert on the Ukrainian war.
– Do you think it is time to increase aid to Ukraine or would it be a growing problem with respect to Russia and its energy threat to the West?
–It was the mobilization of the Ukrainian nation and Western aid that allowed Ukraine to resist and even, apparently, outwit the Russian invaders. This is proof that this aid is useful and there is no other way than to keep it if we want to achieve Ukraine’s victory faster. Yesa victory will bring peace, even if it is a ‘de facto’ peace, without signing a treaty. Simply by stopping the fight. It is clear that the Russian reaction to increasing Western aid to kyiv has been rather weak, in large part because the room for maneuver against the allies is so narrow. The strongest action has been to use European sympathizers to try to convince the public that such aid was useless. The Russian unknown is whether they will declare all-out war, but this will probably only happen if Russian territory is attacked. And we cannot imagine Ukraine invading Russia. She is likely to try to reconquer the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, which would already pose a political problem for Putin. He may try to go back to Crimea, which is a Russian province for Moscow. We do not know what Russia’s reaction would be if this hypothesis became a reality.
-The nuclear escalation is often mentioned as a Russian reaction to a defeat. Do you think that kind of answer is possible?
– I do not imagine Russia using nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Its military results would be uncertain, but the diplomatic and perhaps domestic political consequences would be a disastrous blow to Moscow. Would China, which is very sensitive about this issue, continue to support a country that banishes itself from other nations by breaking the nuclear weapon taboo? Even when the Soviet Union – and later the Russian Federation – found themselves in trouble in the past – in Manchuria in 1969, in Afghanistan or even in Chechnya – nuclear weapons were never used, and for good reason. I hope the same thing happens in this war.
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