Zelensky takes advantage of the celebration of Independence Day to reiterate that his people “will fight to the end” to keep all of their territory
The ‘General Winter’ was the architect of the victory of the Soviet Union over Adolf Hitler’s Germany during World War II. Wehrmacht troops were stranded in the snow and mud at the gates of major Russian cities until they were finally forced back. Vladimir Putin, who reveres those times, is also confident that in the war in Ukraine it will be the cold that will tip the scales in his favor.
He is increasingly convinced that it will not be missiles, tanks or foot soldiers that will ultimately determine the Kremlin’s victory. The ‘special operation’ on Ukrainian soil does not comply with the script written by its military strategists and it seems more than evident that the conflagration is heading for an entrenchment that could lead to situations already experienced in the past by Moscow’s troops in the occupation of Afghanistan or in internal conflicts such as those in Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia or the North Caucasus.
For all these reasons, the Russian president has turned his gaze to other battlefields, especially energy. The cold winters of northern Europe can become the best weapon away from Ukraine. Putin bets, according to some sources close to him, that the vertiginous prices of energy, its possible scarcity and the economic crisis that is riding on the back of gas and electricity will persuade the EU to force Volodímir Zelensky to agree to sign a truce. «He will give up before the West than Russia because dictatorships have a strength and a lack of consideration for their citizens that allows them to stand firm in their positions. There will come a time when Europe will say to kyiv ‘we have come this far. It is time to give something up because the world economy cannot afford to continue at war,’” estimate, for their part, different sources in Brussels.
It is the only path to peace that the Moscow government sees, already convinced that Zelensky will not negotiate of his own free will until Russia leaves all the occupied territory. This was reiterated this Wednesday by the president during the celebration of Independence Day, which coincided with the completion of six months since the start of the war. “We will resist this invasion to the end, without making any concessions or commitments,” he said during the institutional message. «We do not care about the Army they have, we only care about our land. We have stood firm for six months. It is hard, but we have clenched our fists and fight for our destiny. For us, Ukraine is the whole of Ukraine. The twenty-five regions », he added.
Moscow is confident that the unity between the community partners will soon begin to crack
Backed by billions in military aid, training and shared intelligence from the United States and other Western countries, and with a series of military operations against Russian targets that have boosted the morale of its troops, kyiv even sees a chance to turn the facts on the ground. “For negotiations to be possible, it is necessary to change the status quo on the front. They need to suffer major tactical defeats,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a presidential adviser, told Reuters.
failed strategy
The balance of war points to a failure of Moscow. Ukrainian forces foiled Russian attempts to capture the capital and second city, Kharkov; they have regularly destroyed and disrupted Russian supply lines and sunk the ‘Moskva’, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, as well as inflicting significant damage on an airbase in annexed Crimea. In contrast, Moscow has not even fully controlled the Donbas area, initially considered conquered land because the majority of the population was pro-Russian by its roots.
However, the Kremlin believes that the calendar works in its favor. “We have time, we can wait,” they point out from Moscow to the British agency Reuters. Convinced that community unity is beginning to crack, Putin predicts a difficult winter for Europeans. “We are close to seeing protests and riots. Some leaders might think twice before continuing to support Ukraine and think that it is time for an agreement”, they estimate in Moscow. In any case, the official discourse remains along established lines and denies the use of energy as a political weapon.
The same tactic is maintained in Brussels, from where the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, communicated with the Ukrainians on their national day via Twitter: “The EU has been with you in this fight from the beginning. And we will be as long as necessary, “said the German politician.
However, it seems clear that the geopolitical confrontation has pushed energy prices to record levels and the European Union is paying for it in the front row despite trying to find alternative supplies and promoting energy saving measures. Few specialists believe that this winter all their needs can be covered.
Boris Johnson stages a new support for kyiv
Boris Johnson visited Ukraine on Wednesday during the celebration of its Independence Day. The British Prime Minister highlighted the “strong will of the Ukrainians to resist” the Russian invasion. In his opinion, it is something that Vladimir Putin “has not understood.” “You are going to defend your right to live in peace, in freedom, and for this Ukraine is going to win,” he added while announcing a new military aid package valued at more than 64 million euros.
#Russia #believes #Europes #energy #strangulation #bring #peace #Ukraine #winter