Russia assures the United States that it has no “intention to attack” Ukraine

The Russian Federation has no “plans or intentions to attack Ukraine.” With that emphaticness, the Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov transferred this Monday to the US Undersecretary of State, Wendy Sherman, the guarantee that the invasion of “a neighboring country” remains out of all discussion in the talks between the two powers to seek a way out of the Ukrainian crisis. The two diplomats and their technical delegations met in Geneva for a marathon session lasting almost eight hours. At the end, they made a brief separate summary of the meeting, which left almost everything in the air and met the limited expectations placed on the meeting.

Because, despite the fact that the Russian deputy minister declared that his country “does not have and cannot have any intention of attacking” Ukraine and that the White House should not fear an “escalation” of force – unless it causes it itself with the dispatch of soldiers to Kiev-, the United States, NATO and their allies preferred to keep vigil. Perhaps in another situation, in different circumstances and with other actors, the phrase would have been more reassuring. But in this case there are reasons not to cast the bells on the fly.

The two interlocutors lack decision-making capacity and must now report to their top bosses, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, who so far has played ambiguous rhetoric about his plans for Ukraine. The American envoy admitted, when asked if her Russian interlocutor had given guarantees of a prompt withdrawal of troops from the Ukrainian border, with a laconic: “I don’t think we know the answer.”

In reality, there does not seem to be an intention in the Kremlin right now to initiate the demobilization of its 122,000 soldiers stationed a hundred kilometers from the former Soviet republic; a point to which Ryabkov wanted to refer this Monday with the aim of normalizing the deployment: “All measures for combat training of troops and forces are carried out within our national territory.”

The deputy minister arrived in Geneva with a firm step. The claims to Undersecretary Sherman did not loosen a single centimeter of what the Kremlin had been announcing on the eve of the summit. Ryabkov requested that the patience of his Government not be played with and demanded “reinforced concrete guarantees” that Ukraine and Georgia will not host NATO bases – which would place the Alliance at the very doors of Russia – and that it will be addressed the arms balance in the region. The Joe Biden Administration agrees to this extreme to prevent a new missile crisis in Eastern Europe, shedding the main point of light at the summit.

The doors won’t close

In fact, the US Undersecretary of State discussed with her counterpart “a series of ideas that our countries can adopt as reciprocal actions” to limit the deployment of arsenals and troops. “They would serve our security interests and improve strategic stability,” said Sherman, before announcing that the details about this eventual plan – and fundamentally about what to do with missiles capable of reaching a thousand kilometers away – will be revealed in future meetings.

The envoy from Washington was exhaustive, however, regarding Moscow’s claim to end NATO’s “open door policy” in order to have “security guarantees” that the Alliance will not settle in the former former Soviet republics. “We stand firm in our opposition. We will not authorize anyone to close NATO’s open door policy, ”Sherman insisted.

Before closing the session, the undersecretary also insisted to Ryabkov that a hypothetical occupation of Ukraine would entail “enormous costs” for Moscow in the form of sanctions from Western governments. The White House intends, if necessary, to promote the country’s isolation from the international financial community, although it is quite true that Putin has not cared much about the penalties that have been imposed on him for different reasons in recent years and that Russia has weathered with some solvency.

The Deputy Foreign Minister will meet with NATO leaders on Wednesday at the next stop on his “de-escalation” tour. Its general secretary, Jens Stoltenberg, trusted this Monday that this meeting will facilitate finding a way out of the tension in Ukraine. “We are going to the talks in good faith,” he stressed.