Ein a magnificent hall in the Kremlin, a guest grateful for natural gas and a vaccine and tense expectations far beyond Russia: the appearance on Tuesday evening alongside Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was entirely to the liking of the Russian President. Vladimir Putin used it for his first personal statement on the responses of the United States and NATO to the “security guarantees” demanded by Russia in the form of “draft treaties” published in mid-December, which were communicated last week. With the deployment of more than 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine and in the annexed Crimea, Moscow has triggered an international discussion about Russia’s “concerns”, as Putin put it. It became clear that the Kremlin would like to continue this discussion in many forums and is constantly increasing the necessary military pressure on Ukraine.
Moscow’s list of demands is long. For the first time, Putin prioritized them himself, following his complaint that “the fundamental Russian concerns” had been “ignored” in the answers. Russia’s “three key demands” are the renunciation of any NATO expansion, the renunciation of the stationing of missile systems “near the Russian borders” and the “retreat of the military infrastructure” of the alliance to the status of 1997, as the NATO-Russia Founding Act was signed.
It was clear beforehand that the answers from the United States and NATO would not satisfy Putin. In the letters published by the Spanish newspaper “El País” on Wednesday, they reject an end to the alliance’s “open door policy” and the explicit exclusion of Ukraine from joining NATO. Instead, Putin is being offered negotiations on disarmament and confidence-building measures, for example within the framework of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and in the NATO-Russia Council, if Moscow de-escalates Ukraine. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby assured that the American side had not punctured the document. But it shows that Washington is striving for a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
The Americans also declare their willingness to rule out the stationing of missile systems and combat troops in Ukraine if Russia is also prepared to take such steps. However, this is unlikely to be the case, especially with regard to Crimea, which Russia has treated as its territory since 2014. They are also ready to let the Russians inspect the Aegis Ashore missile launch sites in Poland and Romania. According to American statements, they are directed against Iranian missiles that could be launched with “Patriot” anti-missiles. In return, Washington is asking to be able to inspect two plants of its choice in Russia – because the West is also concerned about Russian missiles. According to the American reply, Russia can, with their consent, convince themselves in Poland and Romania that there are no “Tomahawk” cruise missiles in the facilities.
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