The number of reported new infections is falling slightly. It is not yet entirely clear what role an overload of the reporting system plays in this. In any case, according to the RKI, this is no reason to relax.
Berlin – Despite a slight decrease in the number of new corona infections reported weekly, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) advises greater efforts in the fight against the pandemic. D.
he high risk of infection persists in view of the large number of cases, writes the RKI in its weekly report on Thursday. In the first week of December (November 29 to December 5), the number of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants was four percent lower than the week before.
“The slight decrease in the 7-day incidence could be a first indication of a slightly weakening dynamic in the transmission process due to the intensified measures to reduce contact,” writes the RKI. Similar signals would also come from other data systems. The percentage of positive tested PCR samples did not increase further during the week. However, the RKI continues to limit the informative value of the data: “Nevertheless, regionally overloaded capacities in the public health service and regionally exhausted laboratory capacities can still lead to an under-recording of cases.”
Only a fraction examined for omicrons
By December 7th, 28 cases of the new variant Omikron, classified as worrying, had been detected by genome sequencing (up to December 1st there were 4). In 36 other cases there is a suspicion based on a specific PCR test. It can be assumed that there are many more cases, as laboratories only examine a fraction of the positive samples for variants.
“We assume that Omikron will prevail very quickly,” said Christian Karagiannidis, head of the Divi intensive register, the newspapers of the Funke media group (Friday). In Germany, the doubling time is estimated to be one week. “That would mean that the number of cases would start to rise around Christmas, and Omikron could be the dominant variant as early as the end of January.”
Even if an infection with Omikron leads to a lighter course on average than with Delta, the clinics would get a massive problem due to the rapid spread. “We currently have around 5000 Covid intensive care patients nationwide. At no point in the pandemic did we have so few free beds. The wave of Omikron will hit clinics that have long since reached their limits, and the problem cannot be solved with money.
Due to regional capacity bottlenecks in clinics, according to the RKI, at least 93 Covid patients have already been relocated across federal state borders according to the so-called cloverleaf principle.
Virologist Drosten warns
The virologist Christian Drosten warned against assuming that the disease would be milder in Germany if infected with Omikron, as observed in some countries. The immune situation is “a bit different in every country,” he said in the ARD Tagesthemen. In this context, he is concerned that a relatively large number of people in Germany have neither been vaccinated nor recovered. And according to previous knowledge about Omikron, these groups could be particularly susceptible to severe courses.
According to the RKI, the highest 7-day incidence continues to be found in 10 to 14-year-olds with 1020 reported new infections per 100,000 inhabitants, followed by 5 to 9-year-olds with 951. However, schoolchildren are also tested particularly frequently. The calculated number of hospital admissions per 100,000 inhabitants in seven days has risen sharply in the past six weeks, especially for people aged 60 and over.
RKI: Avoid close contact situations
According to the RKI report, the current development continues to be “very worrying”. “The situation can only be improved by intensifying contact-restricting measures and rapidly increasing vaccination rates.” The RKI urgently advises – including those who have been vaccinated and those who have recovered – to cancel or avoid larger events and close contact situations, such as dance events or Christmas parties, if possible.
“A maximum reduction in transmission rates is also necessary in order to slow down the expected spread of the Omikron variant.” According to the RKI, all people should generally reduce unnecessary contacts and avoid travel. “Before coming into contact with people who are particularly at risk, you should have complete vaccination protection and a test should be carried out.” Dpa
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