W.Regardless of how Vladimir Putin’s political plans for the first few weeks of this year may have looked, they probably did not include a deployment of Russian soldiers in Kazakhstan. For months, with a deployment of troops on the border with Ukraine and increasingly harsh rhetoric, the Kremlin created a situation in which most of the politically responsible, from Kiev to Berlin to Washington, believe a Russian attack on Ukraine is possible.
Putin has achieved that, starting next week, talks with the American government and NATO will take place on Russian demands that are so unrealizable that the question arises as to whether Moscow’s goal is not a failure that can serve as a pretext for military action . And then, just a week before these negotiations with the West begin, an uproar breaks out in Kazakhstan, which within a few days shakes the rule of Russia’s most reliable ally since the fall of the Soviet Union.
It is obvious that this was not what the Russian leadership wanted. In some media loyal to the Kremlin, a connection was quickly established: A new front against Russia had been opened in the east in order to weaken its position in the upcoming talks. However, this did not become the prevailing reading. Rather, after a moment of waiting, if not uncertainty, the Russian leadership seems to have recognized a great opportunity in the Kazakh turmoil.
Kazakhstan’s president is now dependent on Russia
She managed to get her military alliance ODKB, which had been unable to act, in motion to defend the Kazakh rulers. At this special moment, the otherwise stubborn and quarreling allies with Russia were united by an interest in preventing the overthrow of an authoritarian regime. The common complicity in the bloody suppression of the protests could develop a binding effect for the future.
The Kazakh President, on the other hand, is almost completely dependent on Russia as a result of this aid. The landing of the Russian airborne troops at Kazakh airports is likely to mark the end of that “multivectoral” foreign policy, as conflict-free as possible, with all economically and politically important powers that Kazakhstan has confidently and skilfully pursued since gaining independence 30 years ago. So far, she had set limits on his allegiance to Russia. In its conflicts with the West, Kazakhstan always behaved as neutrally as possible.
Moscow can achieve all of these gains without the risk of painful reactions from the West. He has hardly any influence in Central Asia anyway. In addition, there are no forces in the violent uprising in Kazakhstan whose support would make political sense.
No hope of relaxation in the west
Nevertheless, it is questionable whether Russia will be the winner of the Kazakh crisis in the long run. Despite the brutality with which the Kazakh security forces are now cracking down on the protests, it is not certain whether the situation will be steadied over the long term. It is likely that Kazakhstan – with which Russia shares a 7,000 kilometer long, so far hardly secure border – will become a trouble spot in a region that is already full of security risks, not only because of its proximity to Afghanistan. That ties up strength. However, Europe and the United States should not therefore hope for relaxation elsewhere. In the Kremlin, one could even come to the conclusion that, precisely because of the crisis in Kazakhstan, now is the last moment to stop Ukraine’s path westward – because the strengths might not be sufficient later.
With the support for another regime that relies only on violence, the Kremlin is of course burning even more of the once great soft power of Russia in the post-Soviet space. After Ukrainians, Belarusians and Armenians, by intervening in Kazakhstan, the Moscow rulers are alienating the next people whose everyday life the Russian language is omnipresent and who have so far looked at their big neighbors without negative feelings.
With his attempt to rebuild a Russian empire based on coercion, Vladimir Putin could herald its final end amid terrible upheavals. This also applies to developments in Russia itself: the turmoil in Kazakhstan is – as was previously the case in Belarus – a warning sign of Putin’s own rule, which functions in a similar way to the regimes in these neighbors.
.
#Riots #Kazakhstan #Putins #Front