Retail trade sales dropped 1.3% in September, compared to August. The data were released this Thursday (11) by the Monthly Trade Survey (PMC).
The drop is the second consecutive fall for the index in the year. Expanded retail, which includes cars and construction materials, fell by 1.1% in September, compared to August.
Economist Paulo Gala, Master and Doctor in Economics from Fundação Getúlio Vargas in São Paulo, comments on the data:
“It’s a bigger drop than we imagined, expectations were for a drop of 0.6% and we had 1.3% in September compared to August. A very bad data.”
The retraction has already configured itself as the biggest for the month since 2000. It is a smaller retraction than the one registered last month, when there was a 4.3% drop, according to a review released today. The data reflect a worrying scenario for the country.
“We have three months of decline in industrial production and now retail is also showing signs of weakness, much greater than expected, in addition to the GDP for the third quarter, which is also going to zero, if not going down”, he comments Paulo Gala.
graph shows variation in retail sales volume index from January 2003 to September 2021 Source: xxxxxx
The economist adds: “Overall, most categories are declining. This data should put even more pressure on the market to readjust GDP growth downwards in 2021 and 2022.”
“The fall, for example, in retail in September 2021 against September 2020 was more than 5%. So the data shows that the recovery is over, we are back to the level of relative stagnation we were in before and the challenge is getting bigger. Now, with the interest burden, with the contractionary monetary policy, it tends to get even heavier”, concludes Paulo Gala.
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