Mexico has gone to the polls this Sunday to elect the 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, 15 governors and thousands of local authorities. In the Chamber, an essential gear for the reforms that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador intends to undertake, the key lies in whether his party (Morena) will consolidate the majorities necessary to handle this piece, and whether he will do it alone or in company.
Judging by the official quick count of the National Electoral Institute, Morena is unable to renew its absolute majority of more than 250 deputies, and needs its regular partners to ensure the passage of laws through the legislature. According to the projection, López Obrador’s party remains between 190 and 203 deputies. The average estimate: 197. It is followed by the conservative PAN, with around 111 (range: 106 and 117), which leads an opposition bloc that also does not achieve the absolute.
The parties have allied themselves in two different coalitions to compete in better conditions for seats in the House. The ruling party is grouped around Morena, also adding the Green Party (PVEM) and the leftist Labor Party (PT). The opposition is made up of the long-standing formations PRI (old ruling party; party of former president Enrique Peña Nieto), PAN (conservative) and PRD (social democrat).
A crucial objective for the ruling bloc was to reach the 334 seats that ensure the possibility of passing reforms of constitutional scope. The minimum intention for the opposition alliance was precisely to prevent said qualified majority, something that, judging by the quick count, they would have achieved, by stopping “Together We Make History” in the vicinity of 280 positions.
Update in progress
Practically half (15) of the 32 Mexican states have elected new chief executives, all by a simple majority. The alliances of the Chamber are reproduced here in a more partial and fragmented way, depending on the agreements reached by the state versions of each party.
The PRI, which until now ruled 8 of the 15 positions at stake, is the one who had the most to lose. And indeed, the old ruling party will not retain any of the governorships that it did.
On the other hand, Morena has won with 11 of the 15 in dispute, compensating with territorial muscle the disappointment that his result in the Chamber has meant.
The key cities
Update in progress
State capitals, medium cities and small municipalities throughout the country also re-elect their leaders, in elections marked in many cases by violence against candidacies. By focusing on the largest and most significant, the melting pot of outgoing and aspiring municipal presidents is as varied as the entire Mexican party spectrum. And, although Morena has a certain prevalence, Movimiento Ciudadano is showing its ability to win votes in urban areas.
Update in progress
In the federal capital, the results are traversed by an invisible wall that divides the 16 mayoralties into two groups in which its subdivides the metropolis. To the east, in areas of comparatively lower per capita income, the left with the Morena-PT alliance (and occasionally PVEM) remains. But to the west, the opposition led by the PAN together with the PRI and the PRD in 13 of the candidacies obtained the mayoralties of Miguel Hidalgo, Benito Juárez, Azcapotzalco, Álvaro Obregón, Coyoacán, Cuauhtémoc, Cuajimalpa, Tlalpan and Magdalena Contreras.
With this, the position of Claudia Sheinbaum, chief executive morenista until 2024, it becomes less robust. In some of these places (Álvaro Obregón, Cuauhtémoc, Miguel Hidalgo) the platform won by their opposition is large enough to question local decision-making as much as possible in the next three years.
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