Search PowerDate survey of 4,500 interviews from September 25th to 27th shows that 36% of the electorate say they would not vote “no way” in Luiz Inácio Lula a Silva (EN). The margin of error is 1.5 percentage points.
The rate dropped 5 percentage points in 15 days: on September 11-13, it was at 41%. In the survey carried out on the 18th to 20th of the same month, it was 38%.
To assess rejection rates and vote potential, the PowerDate asks a question about each candidate individually; the interviewee can say that that name is 1) O “the only one I would vote for”two) what “could” vote for him or 3) I wouldn’t vote for him “no way”. In this round, Lula and Jair Bolsonaro (PL) were tested by this metric.
O President follows with a higher rejection rate than his main opponent: today, 53% deny the possibility of voting for him. The percentage has been hovering close to 50% since March.
The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power360Journalism, with its own resources. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. Data were collected from September 25 to 27, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 4,500 interviews in 323 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 1.5 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-01426/2022.
To reach 4,500 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerDate makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100,000 calls until the interviewees are found who faithfully represent the population as a whole. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.
“THE ONLY ONE I WOULD VOTE FOR”
Today, 44% consider Lula the only option to vote for president, while 36% say the same about Bolsonaro. Rates have been stable since August.
VOTING POTENTIAL
Here are the voting potential numbers of the 2 candidates in this round of the poll PowerDate.
WHY DOES IT MATTER
Because the retreat in Lula’s rejection indicates some margin – albeit a narrow one – for the PT to win in the 1st round. Lula has, today, a voting potential of 59% (“the only one I would vote for” + “I could vote”).
The electorate that considers it the only option (44%) is not enough to close the dispute in the 1st round. Being less rejected, in this context, is important. To be elected on October 2, the PT needs to advance among the most hesitant voters this past week – and make those who currently vote for him leave home to vote.
It is also important to note: Bolsonaro’s strong campaign to reactivate the corruption cases of which Lula was accused in the minds of voters has not yet had an effect.
DIFFERENCES IN SURVEYS
This presidential election is proving challenging for companies doing research. There are many results indicating divergent signals. It was difficult to know what the real trend is at this moment.
It is important to say that all polls are right, each within the methodology chosen. Each system can have advantages and disadvantages, depending on the situation they want to determine.
In 2018, for example, there was much “embarrassed vote” in Jair Bolsonaro. Some face-to-face surveys had difficulty capturing this type of preference. The telephone polls, on the other hand, gave more comfort to part of the voters who opted for the then presidential candidate for the PSL (today, Bolsonaro is in the PL).
It is still unclear what impact each methodology has on data collection. But it is already known that in-person polls tend to have a result pointing to a looser leadership of Lula. And telephone surveys (especially automated and neutral ones, with a recording asking the questions, like the PowerDate) tend to show a tighter contest.
In the United States, face-to-face polling has not been used for decades to measure voting intentions at the national level. The extreme polarized environment hinders data collection when the interviewer and the interviewee are face to face.
In short, it is important to note that it is not a question of there being an error in one or another research. They are different methodologies. At the end of this campaign it will be possible to know which system was most appropriate to point out trends in the current Brazilian political moment.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Research Aggregator clicking here.
The research information began to be compiled by journalist Fernando Rodrigues, Editor-in-Chief of the Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
METHODOLOGY
The search PowerDate was carried out from September 25 to 27, 2022. 4,500 people aged 16 years or older were interviewed in 323 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. A parametric weighting was applied to compensate for disproportionalities in the variables of sex, age, education, region and income. The margin of error is 1.5 percentage points, plus or minus.
The interviews were carried out by telephone (for landlines and cell phones), using the URA (Audible Response Unit) system, in which the interviewee listens to recorded questions and responds through the keyboard of the device. The confidence interval of the study is 95%.
For readability, search results have been rounded. Because of this process, it is possible that the sum of some of the results is different from 100. Differences between the total frequencies and the percentages in tables of cross variables may appear due to non-response occurrences. This study was carried out with the resources of the PowerDatea research company that is part of the media group Power 360 Journalism. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. The research is registered with the TSE under number BR-01426/2022.
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