As there have been elections before in which the main opposition party wins but at the same time the main government parties are growing in popularity, another researcher wonders.
“Result was exactly what I expected, ”commented the researcher at the think tank Magman Mikko Majander the result of the regional elections.
There is a margin for Majander’s self-confidence: the result was indeed very similar to Majander predicted in his blog already on friday. The Basic Finns and the Greens, who were profiled as extremes of identity politics, were far behind when the center, the Coalition Party and the SDP took their traditional seats as three major parties.
“There was quite a bit of room for identity politics in the regional elections. A reliable middle ground won. ”
Also an election researcher Sami Borg The University of Tampere confirms the observation.
“Actually, the only bigger surprises compared to the polls were in the support of the center and the basic Finns. Everything else was within the margins of error, ”says Borg.
“Basic Finns in particular seemed to be a little lost in this election,” Borg continues. “In the election debates, they seemed to be running parliamentary elections.”
Is there now seen in the election so a sign of the return of the three great? Both are skeptical of the idea.
“I wouldn’t dare draw very far-reaching conclusions,” Borg commented.
“Municipal elections have also been more difficult for basic Finns than parliamentary elections. The support now seen is the same type as in the 2017 municipal elections.
Majander has not yet announced the return of the big three, but says it suddenly seems possible again.
“I think the downtown result was as good as it could be. If a moment ago it seemed that the center was a thing of the past, now the situation seems much more open. ”
Read more: The return of the big three and the loss of identity politics? The results of the regional elections do not necessarily indicate a wider change in policy
With everything the result of the election can be considered at least special, Borg sums up.
“Since the last time there was an election in which the main opposition party wins but also the two largest parties in the government are growing in popularity? At least I didn’t invent. ”
Regional elections are not parliamentary elections, and the result cannot be interpreted as a measure of government support. But if it still did, the result would be pretty good from a sitting government perspective, Majander points out.
“The combined support of the governing parties was 58.8 per cent. So one might ask, how significant was the Coalition Party’s victory really? ”
University researcher Emilia Palonen From the University of Helsinki you can see the big lines pretty much like Borg and Majander.
Palonen states that the city center was in need of a forced victory and received it. In any case, all parliamentary parties, with the exception of basic Finns, did well.
Even the Greens increased their regional power regardless of their worse-than-expected outcome.
“In the past, there were a lot of municipalities where the Greens had virtually no activity.” Thus, green decision-makers were not seen on the boards of hospital districts, for example.
“Now the situation is changing. The Greens were represented in all areas of well-being. ”
Palonen also draws attention to the areas of the regions, ie the distribution of the seats of the delegates within the welfare areas.
“In a way, the result seemed better than I feared. Quite a few smaller municipalities even got one representative. ”
Yet the power of downtowns threatens to grow large in many areas.
“I would also like more detailed information on where the delegates come from. Many municipalities have very different areas after the mergers, and many will certainly be left without a representative. ”
Palonen hopes that the future regional councils will also involve a lot of deputy commissioners.
“This would be valuable from the point of view of access to information. If there is no one in the council in the area, decision-makers may not have information on how things are going there.
Borg also finds the representation of small municipalities in councils interesting.
“We need more research to better understand the phenomenon. However, based on preliminary results, it would appear that locality has been an important value for voters, even more important than the party population. It has been better to vote for a candidate from your own village than to vote for your own party. ”
Second an interesting question about Borg is the average age of voters.
“On average, an older population was elected to the councils. The assumption is that the older age groups also went to the polls more enthusiastically. ”
This would also explain the weaker support of the Greens and basic Finns. According to research, the most popular parties among young people are the Coalition Party, the Basic Finns and the Greens.
Palosta, on the other hand, is interested in the role of sound rakes.
“It would seem that a significant number of very popular candidates have risen in the election, who have then been followed by many others, with the voting threshold remaining quite low.”
There are Sari Essayahin (kd) well-known politicians, but also more unknown names such as the former mayor of Varkaus Hannu Tsupari (sd).
“It will be interesting to see how many of the regions’ rakes are running for Parliament next year.”
Mixed Borg and Palonen also emphasize the gender distribution of the elected. 53% of those elected to regional councils were women.
This was the first time in Finnish history that more men than women were elected in the national elections if the 2000 and 2006 presidential elections were ignored.
.
#Regional #elections #Researcher #election #result #candidate #village #voted #party
