The images of hundreds of vehicles stuck in the road arteries trying to leave the city of Kiev could only be the prelude to another crisis that is about to break out, that of refugees due to the armed offensive launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
(Also read: Russia attacks Ukraine by air and land and seeks to block Kiev; 137 Ukrainians are dead)
The Russian armed incursion aimed at seizing the Crimean peninsula in 2014 caused 1.5 million internally displaced persons, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency. Neighbors like Poland, received about 300 thousand people, with which the number of Ukrainians living in that country increased to 2 million.
(Due to the public interest that the events between Russia and Ukraine arouse, all of our coverage of that invasion and related actions will be freely accessible to all readers of TIME)
“We must be prepared to face a wave of up to a million people”, advanced the Polish Deputy Minister of the Interior, Maciej Wasik in relation to the current world tension.
(Also read: Why is Russia invading Ukraine? Here’s what you need to know)
In addition to Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have been preparing to face the massive arrival of Ukrainians. Prague housed 130 thousand Ukrainians in 2015.
Shelly Culbertson and Charles Ries, of the RAND Corporation think tank, argue that the escalation initiated by President Vladimir Putin has the potential to cause a humanitarian tragedy greater than that of 8 years ago.
On that occasion, the Russian offensive was geographically focused on Crimea and Donbas, on the southern and eastern regions of the country, characterized by having a large Russian-speaking population.
For this edition, an armed incursion into central and western Ukraine could lead to large flows of people to neighboring countries, most of which are member states of the European Union (EU).
Between three and five million people could be forced to leave their homes as a result of the eventual expansion of the battlefields, estimates the Ukrainian Defense Ministry; while the US authorities handle figures ranging from one million to five million.
(You can read: Russian Army approaches Kiev to “decapitate” the government, according to the US)
It would be the largest mobilization of people recorded in Europe since the Second World War, with the risk of translating into a humanitarian catastrophe with an impact on European politics.
“The 2015 migration crisis had significant effects on European politics and illustrated potential political risks. Far-right parties flourished in Germany, Austria, France and elsewhere.”
“In the case of much larger mobilizations of Ukrainians, the political impacts could be similar and reinforce nationalist and right-wing movements,” the researchers warn in an analysis released by RAND.
For now, the humanitarian agencies have already sounded the alarms. The Save the Children organization estimates that at least 100,000 people have fled their homes in eastern Ukraine since Monday night.
While the United Nations Children’s Agency (UNICEF), warns that the intensification of hostilities represents an immediate threat to the life and well-being of 7.5 million children. He maintains that the use of heavy artillery on the line that divides both sides has already significantly damaged the water service and the school infrastructure.
Before Putin ordered the advance of his troops, the situation was already delicate in Ukraine. The World Health Organization estimated in January that around 2.9 million people were in humanitarian need.
Experts maintain that one way to mitigate the impacts of the coming exodus is to consider the Ukrainians who emigrate as an economic asset. This could be achieved by taking an approach that recognizes their skills and knowledge, so that people can be targeted to reach communities with labor shortages.
The EU could develop a system of residence or medium-term work visas, in line with what Poland did during the wave of Ukrainians in 2014 or the strategy that Colombia has followed with the Venezuelans.
(Keep reading: Kiev, a besieged capital that fears an imminent fall)
In this way, the mistake made in 2015 would be avoided, when there was fragmentation within the Union due to the arrival of 1.3 million immigrants who applied for asylum seeking to escape conflicts in the Middle East and poverty in Africa.
Ukraine’s Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko has stated that people willing to leave the country have already done so. He assures that the current agreement with the EU allows travel without the need for a visa. He indicated that in the event that Russia chooses to escalate the confrontation, only a small number of people would bet on going to Europe in search of a safer place.
INDER BUGARIN
EL UNIVERSAL (MEXICO) – GDA
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