Russia’s threat to recognize separatist territories in eastern Ukraine is a double-edged sword, capable of forcing the peace process to resume or destroying it forever.
Amid tensions with Western countries, Russian lawmakers on Tuesday urged Vladimir Putin to recognize the independence of the pro-Russian territories of the Ukrainian Donbas, a mining and industrial basin bordering Russia that includes the self-proclaimed “republics”. of Donetsk and Luhansk.
In eight years, the war between Kiev and Moscow-backed separatists has left more than 14,000 dead. The violence of the clashes, however, subsided when the Minsk accords were signed in 2015 between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by France and Germany.
But the political agreement that would allow the conflict to end is at an impasse. Each side accuses the other of blocking the peace process.
A Russian recognition of the separatists would spell the end of that process, as the Minsk accords aim to return these areas to Ukraine’s sovereignty.
“Moscow would be fully responsible for the destruction of the Minsk accords,” Ukrainian diplomacy told AFP.
This “would be an impossible situation, a form of aggression without weapons and dismantling without weapons of the unity and integrity of Ukraine”, summarized the head of French diplomacy, Jean-Yves Le Drian.
The scenario has precedent: in 2008, the Kremlin recognized the independence of two pro-Russian breakaway “republics” in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, after a blitzkrieg against Tbilisi, a former Soviet republic that, like Ukraine, aspires to join NATO.
– “Our patience has a limit” –
Vladimir Putin, however, reacted to his deputies’ appeal by saying that he wants to keep the Minsk accords “until the end”.
But at the same time, he stressed that “the vast majority” of Russians sympathized with the Russian-speaking inhabitants of the Donbas, who, he said, are victims of a “genocide” orchestrated by Kiev.
Russia has also distributed 600,000 Russian passports in the two self-proclaimed “republics”.
According to experts, by threatening to recognize the separatist territories, Moscow wants to send a signal to Kiev that the end of concessions has come.
“It’s a way of saying ‘our patience has limits’, and that if the Minsk accords are boycotted, if they are not implemented, other methods will have to be used,” Fyodor Lukianov, a political scientist close to Russian power circles, told AFP. .
What is at stake is Ukraine’s reluctance to adopt special status and organize elections in Donbas. Kiev argues that separatist forces must first leave the region.
For Ukraine, Moscow is trying to strengthen its influence in this area and blocks the application of the Minsk accords by wanting to impose a direct dialogue between Kiev and the separatists.
But the Ukrainian authorities reject a dialogue in these circumstances, claiming that Moscow is the instigator of the conflict and not a mediator.
This week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz insisted that Ukraine must draft the necessary bills as soon as possible, noting that President Volodymyr Zelensky had promised to do so.
“Sooner or later, Ukraine will present the bills,” Ukrainian negotiator Sergei Garmash told AFP, “but due to the blockade created by Russian demands, their examination will take years.”
Although the Kremlin is increasing the pressure, it has not yet reached the point of signing the death certificate for the peace process, says expert Fyodor Lukianov.
In his opinion, Russia should not deprive itself of an “instrument of influence on the future of Ukraine and, more broadly, on the question of European security”.
Moscow’s ultimate goal is to force the hand of the West to prevent the expansion of NATO with the accession of Ukraine.
In a context of tensions and fears of a Russian invasion, diplomatic efforts have increased in recent weeks to resume peace talks, with meetings in Paris and Berlin. But according to all parties to the conflict, there are still no results.
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