Ipec released surveys for the government in the Federation units with 2nd round; “Poder360” prepared infographics with the results
Ipec (formerly Ibope) released on Friday (28.Oct.2022) and on Saturday (29.Oct) polls of voting intentions for the 12 States where there will be the 2nd round on Sunday (30.Oct).
The surveys are in valid votes –that is, those given to one of the candidates, thus disregarding blanks and nulls. That’s how the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) will publish the results of the investigation.
The disputes will be held in Alagoas, Amazonas, Bahia, Espírito Santo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Sul, Rondônia, Santa Catarina and São Paulo.
Read the results of the surveys in the infographics below. Power360:
ELECTORAL REGISTRATION
All the aforementioned surveys are registered with the Electoral Court. The following list identifies the surveys and data from their methodologies (UF: company, interviews, margin of error, confidence interval, date, registration in the TSE and method of collection).
- AL: Ipec, 800, 3.0 pp, 95%, 26-28.Oct.2022, AL-00388/2022, in person;
- AM: Ipec, 800, 3.0 pp, 95%, 27-29.Oct.2022, AM-09712/2022, in person;
- BA: Ipec, 2,000, 2.0 pp, 95%, 27-29.Oct.2022, BA-02006/2022, in person;
- ES: Ipec, 800, 3.0 pp, 95%, 27-29.Oct.2022, ES-02718/2022, in person;
- MS: Ipec, 800, 3.0 pp, 95%, 27-29.Oct.2022, MS-00102/2022, in person;
- PB: Ipec, 800, 3.0 pp, 95%, 27-29.Oct.2022, PB-03836/2022, in person;
- FOOT: Ipec, 2,000, 2.0 pp, 95%, 27-29.Oct.2022, PE-06246/2022, in person;
- LOL: Ipec, 1,808, 2.0 pp, 95%, 26-28.Oct.2022, RS-00453/2022, in person;
- RO: Ipec, 800, 3.0 pp, 95%, 27-29.Oct.2022, RO-09898/2022, in person;
- SC: Ipec, 1008, 3.0 pp, 95%, 27-29.Oct.2022, SC-01689/2022, in person;
- SP: Ipec, 2,000, 2.0 pp, 95%, 27-29.Oct.2022, SP-04900/2022, in person;
- IF: Ipec, 800, 3.0 pp, 95%, 27-29.Oct.2022, SE-04293/2022, in person.
In the 1st round, Ipec was criticized for incorrectly estimating the outcome of the gubernatorial election in 25 states and the Federal District. He got it right only in Paraíba, where he aimed João Azêvedo (PSB) with 39% of the votes and Pedro Cunha Lima (PSDB) with 22%.
In the final calculation of the TSE, the pessebist scored 39.7% against 23.9% for the toucan. The percentages were within the survey’s margin of error of 3 percentage points.
BRAZIL: LULA 54% X 46% BOLSONARO
In the national voting intention poll, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has 54% of the valid votes, and Jair Bolsonaro (PL), 46%. The PT advantage is 8 percentage points. The previous round of Ipec, released on Monday (24.Oct), showed the same results.
IPEC surveyed 4,272 voters from October 23 to 29 in all regions of the country. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. It is registered with the TSE under the number BR-05256/2022, it cost R$ 514,446.81 and was paid by the Rede Globo.
RESEARCH COMPANIES
Several research companies in Brazil call themselves “institutes”, which can give the idea that they are philanthropic entities or linked to some educational institution. In reality, they are all private for-profit companies. What differentiates them, in some cases, is the portfolio of clients they have and the rules for accepting certain contracts.
O PowerDatefor example, only conducts research for the private sector (including studies commissioned by the digital newspaper Power 360) and does not accept contracts from government agencies, politicians, candidates or parties.
Datafolha calls itself “Institute” and is a commercial company of the group that owns Folha de S.Paulo, UOL and the bank PagBank. He does not work for political parties or politicians, but accepts to carry out research for government agencies.
O ipec (Intelligence and Research in Consulting) is formed by executives from the former Ibope (which closed activities in January 2021). It is a commercial company that, like Ibope, maintained several contracts with the Globo Group, with their research being broadcast on the broadcaster’s television news. Ipec has no restrictions on accepting contracts with governments, parties or politicians. The command is from the statistician Márcia Cavallari, who made a career at Ibope and is now the CEO of Ipec.
The other research companies have no restrictions on working for parties, politicians or governments.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Search Aggregator clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, Click here.
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