Raouf Farrah is a researcher and senior analyst at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC), specialized in migration and criminal economy in North Africa and the Sahel. He is the co-founder of the independent media outlet Twala and regularly contributes to international and African media, and has worked with several international organisations, including the UNDP and the OECD. He is also a civil society activist in Algeria, North Africa and the entire African continent.
Farrah went to Spain to participate in the Casa Arab University Classroom cycle in Madrid and gave the conference “Geopolitics of the Sahara-Sahel: Towards a new paradigm?”, focused on the human, security and geopolitical implications of that new paradigm for the Maghreb countries and the border regions that unite them. The increase in extremist violence, the withdrawal of the French mission (Barkhane) and the UN mission in Mali (MINUSMA), as well as the emergence of actors such as Russia and Turkey, have marked the development of events in the area of the Sahel in recent years.
What is the new paradigm in this turbulent region?
In the situation in the Sahel, there are continuations and disruptions. The continuations are, without a doubt, the problems that persist such as the activity of violent extremist groups or political instability. But there are also disruptions, for example, countries that have experienced a series of coups d’état such as Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali – and that have pushed for changes in sovereignty – have now formed a new security and political alliance: the Alliance of Sahel States after withdrawing from the Community of West African States [también conocida por sus siglas, CEDEAO].
Added to these disruptions is the disappearance of Western allies. For example, in Mali, the Government has pushed the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) out of the country, as has France’s classic Operation Barkhane. In addition, there are a series of actors such as Russia, Türkiye or Iran that, structurally or opportunistically, are changing the situation.
For all these reasons, I believe that we are on the verge of geopolitical changes not only at the macro level, but also at the local level.
Actors such as Russia, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates and Iran, among others, enter this new paradigm. But what is Russia’s role and objective?
Right now, Russia’s role is political and military assistance. There are several countries that are in this bid for political sovereignty and Moscow has played with the imagination that it does not have a past of colonization. On the contrary, Russia is rather an old ally of countries like Mali during the time of the Soviet Union.
At the beginning, the Wagner Group had a very simple idea about what to do in Mali, which basically consisted of helping the military junta come to power and offering military services in exchange for a political and social fracture. But, with the death of leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, his role has changed. The new strategy with Africa Corps [que ha sustituido a Wagner en África] It consists of centralizing efforts, harmonizing countries and optimizing regional actions.
How do you think the presence of MINUSMA troops has influenced regional security in the Sahel?
The withdrawal of MINUSMA is a very sensitive issue. Although it was one of the deadliest missions, it was also an instrument that allowed the organization of operations in inaccessible terrain, the monitoring of the situation in the country and the interaction between the armed forces to maintain – to a certain extent – relative peace. . But we must not forget that MINUSMA itself was the target of violent groups.
MINUSMA was also very important for human rights because there was a unit dedicated exclusively to them. Their reports were a source of relevant information that we no longer have. In addition, he also played a fundamental role in the Algiers agreement [acuerdo de paz y reconciliación entre el Gobierno de Mali y la Coordinación de los Movimientos de Azawad, que busca establecer un estado independiente de Mali]which had the support of the international community through a mediation department.
It should not be forgotten that the first armed interaction between the Malian Armed Forces and rebel groups was over the recovery of a MINUSMA base.
What does the rise of sovereignty in the Central Sahel, especially in Mali and Niger, represent?
This rise of sovereignty comes from two factors. The first, due to the thirst for change, with citizens who believe they are free. The second factor lies in the frustration among the armed forces of these countries regarding the idea that everything is going to come from France or from abroad, and that they believe that they are working for the agenda of others.
These would be the two main factors, but there is also an area that favors both and that generates a domino effect: the first coup d’état was in Mali, in 2020, followed by another, a year later. Next, there was another coup in Niger and Burkina Faso, making a total of seven coups. Still, the people of the Sahel are disappointed that the general standard of living has not changed; On the contrary, it has gotten worse. In a city like Bamako [capital de Mali]there are regular interruptions in the electricity supply and water sanitation problems. It is not certain that in a few years these men will be able to maintain the same popularity.
In your opinion, why should Europe pay attention to what is happening in the Sahel?
We live in a radically interconnected world. A problem that occurs in the other part of the world is going to affect us. We have seen it with the pandemic or with climate change. The situation in the Sahel has an immediate impact on Europe, not only in terms of clandestine immigration, but also on the ability of governments and regional organizations to maintain international cooperation. Furthermore, most economic projects at the micro-local level are funded by other organizations that are funded by the EU or by European countries.
But generally, we have to remember and learn the lessons that the experience of the last decade has taught us. One of them is that we need some humility when we have diplomatic and political relations with complex countries; The other is to have – also – the will to establish an equitable dialogue up to a certain level.
We are talking about Europe, but how does what happens in the Sahel affect North Africa and countries like Algeria or Libya?
We tend to think that changes only have repercussions to the countries themselves or to European countries, without falling into the impact they have on the Maghreb region. The situation in Libya is very different from that in Algeria. Libya’s border with Niger and Chad is not permanently controlled; its porosity is real. Men, armed groups and goods can circulate quickly. In Libya, the rebel groups that control the Fezzan region (southwest) have the desire to have control of everything that borders the border, however, they do not have concrete control.
Regarding the role that Libya is playing with Russia, there is an interest in sending a message that the Libyan armed forces can impose law and order in this region. For example, they organized a military operation called ‘Operation Global’ to combat illegal miners working in the Kilinche mine or in the Salvador pass, near the border with Chad, where there is a lot of gold. In Libya, the main risk is over border control.
On the contrary, in Algeria, the situation is very different. This country has a very strong armed forces, but its border with Mali and Niger is almost 2,000 kilometers. Recently, Algiers has militarized its southern borders due to instability in northern Mali. In addition, it has also accepted the arrival of refugees from northern Azawad, since it considers them as a brother people of Algeria, while maintaining a cultural, social and economic relationship with the smuggling of goods. Everything consumed in northern Mali comes from Algeria.
Still, in both cases, we should not underestimate the rebels’ capabilities. The rebels have the knowledge of how to wage war. They can navigate at night with the stars. They know the desert, rock by rock. We don’t have to underestimate them.
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