Where are we with the race to the Quirinale? Formally everything seems to have stopped and every political leader declares that it is premature to talk about it. But we must never stop at appearances because the race to the Quirinale is a game of mirrors. In fact, the reality is very different from what politicians officially tell: the games and tricks of the Palace (and not) have started for some time.
The key to everything is the position of Mario Draghi: he is the “deus ex machina”. Sooner or later he will have to make his real intentions known even if those close to him know very well that he would rush to the Quirinale: the theme, however, is that his government was born to guarantee the European institutions that the 200 and more billions of euros that are about to rain on Italy are managed as the EU wants. And we are far from fulfilling this assignment, so it will not be at all obvious to see Draghi al Colle next February.
If this is the case, a new and different scenario could open up compared to the last elections for the Head of State where more or less the Democratic Party was the master. Now, given that not everyone wants Mattarella’s “temporary” re-election (including the interested party who, if he were to give up, would prefer a full seven-year period), the candidate must necessarily be transversal, collect votes a little here a little ‘the.
If the center-right were compact (a “heroic” hypothesis these days) in the fourth vote it would have to collect just over 50 votes to elect one of its candidates. Renzi and Di Maio really control about thirty votes each and an agreement with them is not impossible for a candidate who is perhaps not too divisive. Renzi is betting (but he has been saying it for too long and this is a bit suspicious) on Casini, Salvini on Marcello Pera (an old idea by Denis Verdini) but the names of Letizia Moratti and, above all, of the revived Gianni Letta ( even for the Knight it would be impossible to say no).
The current men of the Colle, on the other hand, starting with “Richelieu” Zampetti, focus on Cartabia in the hope that it will then fully reconfirm the staff of the current tenant of the Quirinale. In the Pd area, the “last Japanese”, those who still want to try and really have a minimum of chances are only Gentiloni and Veltroni. But speaking of the center-left, one cannot forget a name that in the last 30 years has always echoed when it comes to Quirinale, Giuliano Amato; if things get very confused (which is by no means to be excluded) you will see that they will begin to talk about it. Let it bet?