The mayor leads numerically with 24% of voting intentions; Boulos has 23% and Marçal has 20%; they are tied within the margin of error of 3 pp
A Quaest survey released this Wednesday (September 18, 2024) shows a three-way tie in the race for Mayor of São Paulo. The mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB) appears numerically ahead, with 24% of voting intentions. Next is the federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (Psol) with 23%. Former coach Pablo Marçal (PRTB) has 20%. The three are tied within the margin of error of 3 pp.
The presenter Jose Luis Datena (PSDB) appears with 10%. It is followed by the federal deputy Tabata Amaral (PSB)with 7%. The economist Marina Helena (New) has 2%.
Here is the 1st stimulated scenario of the 1st round:
- Ricardo Nunes (MDB) – 24%;
- Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) – 23%;
- Pablo Marcal (PRTB) – 20%
- Jose Luiz Datena (PSDB) – 10%;
- Tabata Amaral (PSB) – 7%;
- Marina Helena (New) – 2%;
- Altino Prazeres (PSTU) – 0%;
- Bebeto Haddad (DC) – 0%;
- John Pepper (PCO) – 0%;
- Ricardo Senese (UP) – 0%;
- blank/null votes – 7%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer – 7%.
The survey was conducted by Quaest from September 15 to 17, 2024. 1,200 people aged 16 or over in São Paulo (SP) were interviewed. The confidence interval is 95%. The margin of error is X percentage points, either way. The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number SP-00281/2024
According to Quaest, the cost of the study was R$114,600. The amount was paid by Globo.
2nd round
The survey also tested second-round scenarios. Here are the numbers:
Boulos x Marcal:
- Guilherme Boulos – 42%;
- Pablo Marcal – 36%;
- blank/null votes – 17%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer – 5%.
Marcal x Nunes:
- Ricardo Nunes – 47%;
- Pablo Marcal – 27%;
- blank/null votes – 20%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer – 6%.
Boulos x Nunes:
- Ricardo Nunes – 46%;
- Guilherme Boulos – 35%;
- blank/null votes – 13%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer – 6%.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
THE Poder360 offers its readers the Research Aggregator oldest and most complete survey on the internet in Brazil. It brings together thousands of voting intention surveys from all companies since the year 2000. In election years, only studies that are registered with the Electoral Court and have a complete known methodology are published. Do you have any research to share? Send the full survey by email to Poder360: [email protected].
To access the Research Aggregator, Click here and search for the data you want for the 2024 elections or all previous years. This tool offers access only to subscribers of Poder Monitor, the most complete tool for monitoring the Three Powers of Government and everything related to power. To subscribe to Poder Monitor and have access for 30 days free, click here.
Learn how to use the aggregator by watching the video below (1min12s):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkajY5cxdLY
#Quaest #Nunes #Boulos #Marçal #maintain #threeway #tie