President Biden foresaw that this would be the week of the invasion. President Putin is making it the week of the – partial – withdrawal. With surprise and skepticism, the world saw the announcement on Tuesday morning, accompanied by images of tanks on trains, that some of the Russian military and weapons were returning to their barracks near the Ukrainian border.
The nature and extent of the withdrawal have yet to be confirmed. The exercises in Belarus and on the Black Sea continue. Questions remain, but it is a signal that the Kremlin apparently wants to de-escalate.
Also read: Russia remains ready for the attack
At least the military maneuver gives the Russian side the satisfaction that the American war language can be mocked. Maria Zakharova, spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, did not miss the opportunity. “February 15 will go down in history as the day when Western war propaganda failed. Humiliated and devastated without firing a shot,” she wrote on Telegram. Since last Friday, that war language has soared to a new boiling point, warning that a Russian attack on Ukraine was likely to take place this week, possibly this Wednesday.
It is still too early to say that Tuesday is the day when the conflict between East and West turned. It is a day when a lot happened around the Ukraine crisis. With mixed signals from Russia.
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In addition to the military movements, there are political noises that offer hope. That started on Monday, when Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said in a talk disguised as a talk with Putin that the possibilities for diplomatic dialogue are “far from exhausted”. Lavrov suggested continuing and even intensifying the talks. That was a break with the pessimism that Russia has been expressing since early January about diplomatic relations surrounding the ‘security guarantees’ desired by Russia.
On Tuesday, Lavrov expressed his confidence in a mediating role for the European organization OSCE and called for a “pragmatic dialogue on security” in a telephone conversation with his American colleague Antony Blinken.
Genocide, that’s what’s happening in the Donbas
Vladimir Putin president of Russia
Optimists can also draw hope from Putin’s statements during the press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who was visiting Moscow. Putin: “We are ready to continue working together, we are ready to continue negotiating.” Putin does hold on to the unspeakable demands for the US and NATO that Ukraine should never become a member of NATO and that NATO should withdraw from Eastern Europe.
Pessimists will point to Putin’s response when Scholz said NATO bombs were needed on Belgrade in 1999 because of the threat of genocide. Putin: “Genocide, that’s what’s happening in the Donbas today.” Putin already used that loaded term in December, referring to the alleged fate of Russians and Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.
People’s Republics
The people of the Donbas, the region that has been ravaged by struggles between pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian army for eight years, are at the center of another issue.
The State Duma, the Russian parliament, on Tuesday asked Putin to recognize the independence of the two pro-Russian “people’s republics” Donetsk and Luhansk. Putin said he would not do that – for the time being – because he is sticking to the Minsk agreements that should regulate the status of the region.
The problem is that implementation of those agreements is unthinkable for Ukraine. ‘Minsk 2’ was captured in February 2015, at a time when Ukraine was militarily struggling against the Russian-backed separatists. Part of that truce is a separate status for the territory occupied by the rebels, with political power at the national level.
Both NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg and EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell immediately warned of the drastic consequences if the two republics were recognized as independent by Russia. After all, that would be a – new – encroachment on Ukraine’s sovereignty and pave the way for overt Russian meddling in the region. The Duma request is a powerful tool for Putin to put further pressure on Kiev and the West.
On the one hand, a little military relaxation and an opening for discussion. On the other hand, harsh language and the threat of a bite from Ukraine. Putin still leaves the West guessing about his strategy.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of February 16, 2022
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