On Sunday, President Putin ordered the “strategic deterrent force,” which includes nuclear weapons, to be raised to readiness. Russia is engaged in a war that is progressing more slowly than analysts had expected. And isn’t someone who attacks Kiev capable of anything? Eight questions about nuclear weapons.
1 What exactly did Putin mean by his assignment?
Russia has four steps in the preparedness of its armed forces, rising from 4 to 1. The Russian defense minister said on Monday that he has translated Putin’s order into one step, from level 4 to level 3. That means, explains Clingendael researcher Danny Pronk explains that the command structure from the political-military top to the commando units is activated and that the command posts are manned 24 hours a day. The deterrent power includes nuclear weapons that are on land, on submarines or which can be hung under aircraft.
2 What did Putin intend with this measure?
Putin’s action is mainly seen as a form of strategic communication. Pronk: “Putin wanted to send a signal to the West, to NATO: beware, you are making it very difficult for me now, do not go further than this.” Nuclear weapons were therefore mainly used as psychological pressure. “The fact that we are talking about it now actually shows the usefulness of the measure,” says Pronk.
3 What was the United States’ response?
The US indicates the preparedness of its armed forces in five steps defense readiness condition, better known as Defcon. In addition, Defcon-1 signals the beginning of a nuclear war. Washington has not increased Defcon status. This prevented escalation and -Washington made it clear that it mainly saw Putin’s action as a signal.
4 Shouldn’t the West stay on par with Russia?
There was no need to go along with the escalation. The United States, the United Kingdom and France are constantly patrolling nuclear-powered submarines.
“There is always the possibility to strike back devastatingly,” says Pronk. “Even if Putin would be mad enough to attack on a large scale, the Russian Federation could still be taken back in a devastating way.” On board such a submarine are twenty ballistic missiles, each equipped with several heavy warheads.
5 How many nuclear weapons does Russia have?
The arsenal consists of 4,477 warheads, 1,588 of which are mounted on missiles or stored at air bases. Another 2,898 warheads are held in stock. Russia is also investing in the development of new weapons.
6 Are there nuclear weapons near Ukraine?
Shortly before the attack, it emerged that Russia had deployed missiles that could also be used to mount nuclear warheads near the Ukrainian border. The warheads themselves and the units that can handle them were not spotted in the border area until last week, it said Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on February 23.
7 Can Russia use nuclear weapons without risk of escalation?
After the Russian invasion of Crimea and Putin’s remark that he had also considered the use of nuclear weapons, US Generals Concerned about small Russian nuclear weapons and the idea that you could deploy a small weapon without triggering escalation. That idea becomesescalate to deescalatecalled, E2D. You could also see the small American nuclear bombs stored in the Netherlands in this way, says Pronk. But, he warns: “A nuclear weapon is a nuclear weapon. Once you cross that border, even with a small weapon, you open the door for further escalation. Where does it stop then? So it’s really not an option.” At the beginning of this year, the nuclear powers in the UN Security Council declared that a nuclear war can never be won. Russia also signed that statement.
8 Who is actually in charge of those nuclear weapons in the Netherlands?
At Volkel Air Force Base, the US army stores nuclear weapons that can be hung under Dutch or Belgian F16 fighter planes. Its deployment is decided by NATO’s highest political body, the North Atlantic Council, in which all member states are represented.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC in the morning of March 2, 2022
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