The veteran politician believes that the invasion leads to “a very significant step forward” for the EU in terms of defense and foreign policy
Romano Prodi did not expect Vladimir Putin to carry out the threat of invading Ukraine. “With all intellectual honesty, I must admit that he had not made any predictions about these events,” confesses the veteran former Italian prime minister and former president of the European Commission, 82, in an interview with this newspaper. Favorable to the delivery of weapons to the Ukrainians, although “it is not something that makes me happy”, the ‘Professore’, as he is still known in Italian politics, is convinced that this war can change the European Union forever: “Putin He managed to unite her.”
He believes that the reaction to Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine propitiates “a very significant step forward” for the Twenty-seven to equip themselves with a common defense and foreign policy.
-Do you share the reaction of the EU to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia? Do you agree to the shipment of weapons?
-The unanimous position of the EU against Russian aggression goes in the right direction. The problem now is to know how the situation is going to develop. Regarding the delivery of weapons to the Ukrainians, it seems to me an inevitable decision at the point we had reached. It’s not something that makes me happy, but it was hard not to. Now we must be very careful to prevent situations that lead to an extension of the conflict and reach an even broader magnitude.
-Should the EU have delivered weapons to Ukraine earlier?
I don’t have enough information about it. In all intellectual honesty I must admit that he had not made any predictions about these events. Everything that has happened for me has been unexpected.
-What idea has been made of the invasion? Why do you think Putin has made this decision?
-The answer to that question will come from the events that will take place soon. Will Russia withdraw after completing its planned military action? Will it lead to a change of government in Kiev? It is a process that is ongoing right now and about which it is difficult to give an answer. We also lack detailed information on the strategies of both sides, for example, why the Russian Army advances and then stops.
Miscalculation
“The Russian president may have expected the EU to be divided, but he has found the opposite”
-Has the EU maintained a position that is too weak vis-à-vis Russia so far?
-It could be that Putin has played this bet anticipating that the EU was going to be divided, but he has found that now it is absolutely united. Putin has managed to unite Europe, which is quite an unexpected result for what he could expect. Never before has the EU had a united foreign policy. Let us remember what happened with Iraq and Libya and the opposing positions. But now we are facing a new fact: faced with a big and important problem there is an absolute convergence of all European countries. of all
-How can the EU change now?
-It could be the occasion to take a very significant step forward, although for the moment a very strong political decision has already been made: Germany will considerably increase its military spending. In theory, this movement will speed up the construction of a single European defense and foreign policy. But it cannot be the initiative of a single country. This decision by Germany will push France to reflect and become equally the architect of the common foreign and defense policy. It is something similar to what happened with Germany with the great step forward it took with the common European economic policy to respond to the pandemic. I hope now that the same thing happens with France, that we remember that she is the one that has the right of veto in the UN and also the nuclear weapon.
Do you fear that this conflict will lead to an atomic war?
Just hearing that word gives me goosebumps. Unfortunately, the atomic risk is stronger in today’s multipolar world than in the bipolar world of the two great powers, in which the atomic question was mentioned every day. Today it seems that it was almost like one of the great instruments that can change our lives. But just thinking about it made me shiver.
Long-term
– Would you be favorable to the entry of Ukraine into the European Union?
-It can be a long-term objective, but first the necessary conditions have to be met to start that journey, which are many and involve years of negotiation. When he was president of the European Commission he proposed the creation of a ‘ring of friends’ that would include nations ranging from Belarus to Morocco, passing through Israel, Syria or Libya. This would open up the possibility of reaching particular agreements that would then go ahead each one on their own. The proposal was then rejected, but I think it should be taken into account today. Ukraine could perfectly fit into that ‘ring of friends’. Putin, furthermore, has already shown that he would not be interested in Ukraine’s eventual entry into the EU. What worries him is NATO.
the nuclear threat
“The atomic risk is stronger in today’s multipolar world; Just thinking about it makes me tremble.”
-What future scenarios do you foresee for the Ukrainian conflict?
-It is very difficult for me to have an idea about the future at this moment in which I limit myself to seeing the present with sadness. We do not know how far Putin wants to go. In his mind is nostalgia for the Russia of the tsars. In 1913 there were 176 million Russians, accounting for a tenth of the human population. Today, however, there are 144 million, which means less than one in 50 inhabitants of the planet. Despite the enormous size of its territory, the reality of Russia today in the world is diverse. Although there are those who talk that she can act like this because she feels cornered by the expansion of NATO, this act of war is inconceivable.
-How do you assess China’s position?
-Until now it maintains an ambiguous position: on the one hand it supports Russia and on the other it says it defends the territorial integrity of Ukraine. It maintains relations with both countries. Beyond the concern about the war, for China this is also an advantage, as it opens a new front for the United States at a time when it would prefer to concentrate on the Pacific.
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