Russia immediately recognizes the separatist people’s republics in Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, as independent. This brings the Ukraine crisis into an entirely new alarm phase.
Recognition of the republics is seen by Kiev and the West as a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Western politicians fear that it is a stepping stone for the open stationing of Russian soldiers on Ukrainian soil. Indeed, shortly after his speech, Putin announced a “peace mission” in these regions.
“It’s a bad, dark omen,” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said of the Russian president’s words. The European Union will respond to the recognition by imposing sanctions “against those involved in this illegal act,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Charles Michel said in a statement.
The recognition is also a violation of the Minsk Accords. After the Donbas War in 2014, agreements were made about the future status of the republics within the Ukrainian state. While the Accords have become a permanent source of friction between Moscow and Kiev, they have also been the last straw in diplomatic efforts to prevent a Russian escalation in recent weeks. With the recognition, the chords are worth almost nothing.
Also read: Moscow steps up pressure in Donbas with fake news and violence
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his decision Monday night at the end of a TV speech in which he lashed out at Ukraine and the West. Afterwards, he signed the decrees regulating the recognition, as well as friendship treaties, which, the West fears, will pave the way for the stationing of Russian soldiers.
Verbal attack on Ukraine
Putin portrayed Ukraine as a corrupt state, which does not take good care of its citizens, has cheated Russia and, historically speaking, has no right to exist.
Putin denounced the expansion of NATO and believed that NATO poses a threat to Russia. The alliance would have turned Ukraine into a “theater of war”. He also made it seem that Ukraine’s accession to NATO is virtually a fact. However, accession is not an issue. Ukraine does aspire to become a member, but for many NATO countries that is out of the question. Putin has demanded written guarantees in recent months that Ukraine should never join, but the alliance does not want to give that guarantee.
The verbal attack on Ukraine and the West was so fierce that it could be seen as justifying steps beyond recognition of the separatist republics. Putin portrayed the West as a threat to Russia.
In the Ukraine crisis, Russia has been piling up one prefabricated or fabricated incident after another in recent days to trick Ukraine into constructing an excuse for a military operation. Ukraine and Russia thus became embroiled in a hectic information battle.
It’s a bad, dark omen
Boris Johnson British Prime Minister
Western government leaders have repeatedly warned that a Russian military escalation will be preceded by alleged Ukrainian provocations. “It’s a classic state of affairs,” said EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell in Brussels on Monday evening. “Before an action, you create an excuse.”
Kiev had to refute a slew of Russian allegations in a matter of hours on Monday morning. Kiev denied that Ukrainian soldiers had attacked a Russian border post, that five Ukrainians had been killed and that two Ukrainian armored vehicles had been destroyed when they ventured into Russian territory.
The republics have been at the center of that information war for a few days now. Last week, calls were made for evacuation and mobilization in view of alleged aggression on the part of Ukraine. Kiev promptly dismissed that aggression as nonsense. Film images of traffic jams with evacuees towards the Russian border were supposed to underline the seriousness of the situation, but a little later it turned out that those images had been recorded much earlier.
After a weekend of heightened tensions, the new week had begun with hopes for new talks, said Borrell, who met for ten hours with EU foreign ministers. In the course of the day the situation had turned around as Putin toyed with the idea of recognizing the republics.
Also read: Putin puts Macron mediator out in the cold
Diplomatic solution
In the meantime, efforts to find a diplomatic solution continued unabated. A meeting between Foreign Ministers Lavrov and Blinken is scheduled for Thursday in Geneva, while Lavrov has in principle a meeting with his French counterpart Le Drian in Paris on Friday. President Biden was said to be open to a meeting with President Putin, but the Kremlin has refused to do so for the time being.
According to a recent US estimate, Russia has now concentrated 190,000 troops and heavy equipment around Ukraine. This weekend it emerged that the Russian soldiers who took part in a joint exercise in Belarus will remain there for the time being.
The Russian military is located close to the Ukrainian northern border and therefore close to Kiev. The change of course also shows that Moscow and Minsk have explicitly joined forces. A spokesman in Minsk said NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe was aggressive and unwarranted—exactly the same reproach Russia is making on NATO. Belarus borders the NATO states of Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. In his conflict with Ukraine, Putin has – en passant – strengthened his hold on Belarus. “Belarus is losing its sovereign status and is on the way to becoming a satellite state,” Borrell said.
Russia announced a no-fly zone over the Sea of Azov, a bulge in the Black Sea bordering both Ukraine and Russia. The important Ukrainian port city of Mariupol borders the sea and the situation around the Sea of Azov has become increasingly unsettled since last week.
On Sunday, a flotilla of Russian warships entered the Sea. Moscow made in a NOTAM (Notice to airmen) announced that no more commercial flights are allowed over the Sea. Ten airlines have now suspended their flights to Ukraine.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of February 22, 2022
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